What to Know on Tuesday, September 9th
The US Dollar (USD) is having a tough time early on Tuesday, struggling to attract buyers after a decline against major currencies on Monday. Today, the August NFIB Business Optimism Index is set to be released, which is listed on the US Economic Calendar. More significantly, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will revise its initial employment data benchmarks.
US Dollar Prices over the Past 7 Days
The following table summarizes the US dollar’s performance against various major currencies over the last week. Notably, the USD showed the weakest performance against the Swiss franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.44% | -0.15% | -0.10% | +0.37% | -0.83% | -0.76% | -1.04% | |
| EUR | +0.44% | +0.28% | +0.36% | +0.82% | -0.34% | -0.32% | -0.60% | |
| GBP | +0.15% | -0.28% | +0.08% | +0.53% | -0.64% | -0.63% | -0.88% | |
| JPY | +0.10% | -0.36% | -0.08% | +0.45% | -0.75% | -0.66% | -0.92% | |
| CAD | -0.37% | -0.82% | -0.53% | -0.45% | -1.22% | -1.09% | -1.40% | |
| AUD | +0.83% | +0.34% | +0.64% | +0.75% | +1.22% | +0.05% | -0.23% | |
| NZD | +0.76% | +0.32% | +0.63% | +0.66% | +1.09% | -0.05% | -0.28% | |
| CHF | +1.04% | +0.60% | +0.88% | +0.92% | +1.40% | +0.23% | +0.28% |
The table indicates the change rates between each major currency. For example, if you check the USD and its comparison with the Japanese Yen, the percentage reflects the rate of change for USD versus JPY.
As expectations regarding the Federal Reserve rise—following several interest rate cuts this year—the USD index has dipped by about 0.3%, hitting its lowest one-day close since late July. Meanwhile, major indexes on Wall Street remained buoyant, closing with slight gains. Futures for US stock indices are reportedly trading in the positive range on Tuesday morning.
During the Asian trading session, data from Australia revealed that consumer confidence dropped to -3.1% in September, down from 5.7% in August. Additionally, the National Bank of Australia’s Business Trust Index also decreased. After a rise exceeding 0.5% on Monday, AUD/USD appears to have settled around 0.6600.
In France, Prime Minister Francois Bailloux lost a confidence vote on Monday, as many anticipated. President Emmanuel Macron is expected to announce a replacement soon. Despite these political challenges, EUR/USD closed positively on Monday owing to significant selling pressure against the USD. The pair may trade within a narrow range above 1.1750 during Tuesday’s European session.
Gold prices have seen a continued surge, reaching new highs close to $3,660 on Tuesday, following a rally on Monday. As the morning unfolds in Europe, XAU/USD may undergo adjustments, with transactions settling below $3,650.
GBP/USD posted moderate gains on Monday, buoyed by the weakened state of the USD. The pair is expected to maintain its position above 1.3550 early Tuesday.
On the other hand, USD/JPY is facing downward pressure heading into Tuesday’s European session, potentially nearing 147.00. Japan’s trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, mentioned that tariffs on Japanese goods by the US, including automobiles, will decrease by September 16th.
FAQs about Non-Farm Payroll
Non-farm payroll (NFP) is part of the monthly employment report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. It specifically tracks changes in employment numbers across various sectors, excluding agriculture.
NFP figures can influence Federal Reserve decisions, helping gauge how well it meets goals like full employment and 2% inflation. Higher NFP numbers indicate more hiring, possibly due to increased wages, while lower numbers can reflect job market struggles. Typically, the Fed reacts to low unemployment by raising interest rates, while encouraging low rates in stagnant job markets.
There’s generally a positive correlation between NFP and the US dollar. When NFP exceeds expectations, the USD usually strengthens, and vice versa. This relationship hinges on inflation and interest rate expectations.
Conversely, NFP tends to negatively impact gold prices. Higher payroll numbers can push gold prices down since a strong USD means less is needed to purchase an ounce of gold. Moreover, rising interest rates often make holding gold less appealing compared to interest-earning cash.
It’s worth noting that NFP is just one part of a broader employment report and can sometimes be overshadowed by other data points. Occasionally, even when NFP results exceed expectations, lower average wages can lead the markets to downplay inflation concerns. Factors like participation rates and average hours worked may also affect responses, as seen in unusual events or economic crises.
