Here’s what you should know for Friday, July 25th:
US Dollar (USD) The Index gained over 0.3% on Thursday, breaking a four-day gain streak. This Friday, market activity is likely to pause as investors await the next driving factor. On the US economic calendar, durable goods orders for June will be released later.
This week’s US Dollar Price
The table below shows how the US dollar (USD) has changed against various currencies this week, with the dollar being the weakest compared to the euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.99% | -0.52% | -0.72% | -0.45% | -0.97% | -0.90% | -0.72% | |
| EUR | 0.99% | 0.54% | 0.26% | 0.53% | -0.02% | -0.09% | 0.24% | |
| GBP | 0.52% | -0.54% | -0.50% | 0.03% | -0.53% | -0.42% | -0.11% | |
| JPY | 0.72% | -0.26% | 0.50% | 0.27% | -0.22% | -0.23% | 0.17% | |
| CAD | 0.45% | -0.53% | -0.03% | -0.27% | -0.46% | -0.45% | -0.32% | |
| AUD | 0.97% | 0.02% | 0.53% | 0.22% | 0.46% | 0.00% | 0.39% | |
| NZD | 0.90% | 0.09% | 0.42% | 0.23% | 0.45% | -0.00% | 0.31% | |
| CHF | 0.72% | -0.24% | 0.11% | -0.17% | 0.32% | -0.39% | -0.31% |
The heatmap illustrates the change rate among major currencies, with the base currency on the left and the estimated currency on top. For instance, selecting US dollars vs. Japanese Yen shows the value change in the corresponding box.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained the key rate, which was expected following their July meeting. At a press conference, President Christine Lagarde highlighted the ongoing risks to economic growth, focusing on the uncertainty affecting EU-US trade. Following a modest close on Thursday, EUR/USD remains in a consolidation phase around 1.1750 early Friday. Market participants will look closely at the IFO sentiment surveys from Germany later today.
The U.S. Department of Labor announced that initial weekly unemployment claims dropped to 217,000, down from 221,000 previously. This is better than the market’s expectation of 227,000. Other US data also indicated growth in private sector activities, with the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) moving up from 52.9 in June to 54.6.
In related news, US President Donald Trump has continued to advocate for lower interest rates during his visit to the Federal Reserve. Treasury Secretary Scott Bescent echoed the administration’s criticisms of the Fed in an interview, linking it back to US-China trade discussions. Notably, Bescent remarked that the US is in a favorable position concerning trade with China. Furthermore, The Wall Street Journal reports that the Trump administration is gearing up for new trade discussions with China next week, aiming for an economic agreement that enhances access to the US market, particularly in business and technology sectors. The USD index has been oscillating around 97.50 during the European session, while US stock index futures showed slight increases between 0.1% and 0.2%.
According to the UK’s National Statistics Office, retail sales increased by 0.9% in June compared to the previous month, a bounce back from a 2.8% decline in May, though it fell short of expectations for a 1.2% rise. GBP/USD continues to trade below 1.3500 this morning.
In Japan, the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year in July, down from the 3.1% increase noted in June. After hitting around 147.50 during Asian trading, USD/JPY quickly lost its momentum and retreated to approximately 147.00 by the European morning.
After a notable drop on Wednesday, gold has continued its slide, with a loss of over 0.5% on Thursday, pushing XAU/USD to around $3,550 early Friday.
