Over the past decade, handicapping the futures market for the men’s side of the French Open has boiled down to one key question. The question is, does anyone have any hope of beating Rafael Nadal?
The Spaniard has won 14 of the last 18 tournaments, including last year, so the answer to that question was almost always a resounding “no.”
But with Nadal out this year with a hip injury, attention has turned to his likely successor, Carlos Alcaraz.
Alcaraz, 20, is the favorite to win the Musketeers Cup at +155, ahead of Novak Djokovic (+230), Daniil Medvedev (+900) and the dominant Holger Loon (+950).
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It’s impressive that Alcaraz has already reached the heights of being a Grand Slam contender, but that figure is too short for a player at this stage of his career.
That doesn’t mean Alcaraz isn’t a contender in the field, it’s just that it’s not worth it.
Especially since Alcaraz’s path to the final is likely to include tough matches against Stefanos Tsitsipas and Djokovic, so he’s likely to see similar numbers later in the tournament.
The French Open has been very murky for most of it because Nadal has owned Roland Garros since 2005.
Nadal is on the sidelines, but perhaps the first true longshot winner since Gaston Gaudio lifted the trophy as a 50-1 outsider.
Best bets for Men’s French Open 2023:
Alexander Zverev (+3100, Fan Duel): I haven’t seen Zverev hit the ceiling since returning from injury this year, so it’s a nasty handicap.
Zverev is 0-6 against top 20 players in 2023 and has been eliminated in the round of 16 for four consecutive tournaments until this week’s Geneva Open.
That being said, Zverev had great success at Roland Garros.
He has reached the quarterfinals or better in four of the last five years, and has reached the last four in a row.
This number is too good to ignore Zverev’s history here.
Andrei Rublev (+4500, fanduel): The world No. 7 Rublev has reached the quarterfinals seven times in his Grand Slam career, including two of the last three French Opens, but has never reached the semifinals. do not have.
It’s an obvious hurdle for the Russian, but with so many impressive trophies on his wrist, including the 2023 Monte Carlo Masters, it feels like it’s only a matter of time before he breaks through at a Grand Slam.
Taylor Fritz (+9500, fan duel): He’s struggled at Roland Garros in his career and isn’t known as a clay-court player, but Fritz’s ceiling is high enough that the numbers are always worth considering.
That said, Fritz has had some encouraging results in the dirt this season, most notably qualifying for the semi-finals at the Monte Carlo Masters in April.
Fritz has had problems making it through the Grand Slams, but his reputation has given us the opportunity to buy him at a great price.
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Lorenzo Musetti (+12500, BetMGM): Musetti got off to a poor start to the year, but he seems to have picked up form during the European clay-court season.
The Italian has reached the quarter-finals in Monte Carlo and the semi-finals in Barcelona, beating Djokovic, Cam Nory and Francis Tiafoe in recent weeks.
Musetti’s draws are brutal — he has Norry, Alcaraz and Tsitsipas in his quarter — but Musetti has a game to outdo the field when things get messy.
