In Michigan, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are tied in the presidential race, widely seen as a must-win state for Democrats. A Fox News survey of Michigan voters conducted after Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Harris showed Harris outperforming President Joe Biden in several key voting groups, making it the first even race this year.
If Harris and Trump were to go head-to-head, they would each receive 49% support. Trump led Biden by three points in April and two points in February. After being informally accepted as the party’s nominee, Harris received higher support than Biden in April, while Trump’s approval rating remained flat despite polls conducted in the aftermath of the Republican National Convention and the assassination attempt.
Here’s why the race is so close: Men support Trump by 13 points and women support Harris by 12 points. Voters over 45 support Trump by 2 points, while voters under 35 support Harris by 5 points. Whites without a college degree support Trump by 15 points, while whites with a college degree support Harris by 3 points, and people of color support Harris by 39 points.
Harris also gains support from union households (+6 points), but trails just 9 points among those who are “somewhat” dissatisfied with Biden’s job performance.
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Other groups favoring Trump include independents (+8 points), rural voters (+20), and white evangelical Christians (+48).
Compared to Biden in April, Harris is performing better among Democrats (3 points), men (+5), whites without a college degree (+6), black voters (+7), voters under 35 (+12), and voters who have negative views of both Biden and Trump (double haters +23). She is performing worse than Biden among voters over 65 (-3 points) and suburban women (-2).
Vice President Kamala Harris arrives at a campaign event in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on Tuesday, July 23, 2024. (Daniel Steinle/Bloomberg)
“Harris has a slight edge among key Democratic voters and there’s certainly enthusiasm on the left,” said Daron Shaw, a Republican who runs the Fox News poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. “But Democrats are totally turned off by Biden, and he’s lost support among young people and non-whites, so the bar is pretty low.”
Overall, seven in 10 people say they are very motivated to vote this year, favoring Trump over Harris by a full percentage point.
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About 5 in 10 Michigan voters say they are falling behind economically, while nearly 4 in 10 say they are staying the same and 1 in 10 say they are making progress — numbers little changed since April.
The economy is most important to Michigan voters, with more than twice as many (35%) saying it is the most important issue on their ballot than immigration (17%) or abortion (16%). All other issues rank in the single digits.
Trump is favored among those who vote on immigration (+79) and the economy (+31), while those who prioritize abortion support Harris (+68).
In the expanded vote, Ms. Harris is trailing Mr. Trump by 2 percentage points (43-45%), Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 7%, and Jill Stein and Cornel West at 1% each. Trump also trailed Mr. Biden by 2 percentage points in April, with Kennedy at 9%.
Kennedy has slightly more support from Trump supporters (8%) than Harris (6%).
Biden won Michigan by 2.78 percentage points, with 50.62 percent of the vote, in 2020. The survey found that 43 percent of voters approve of Biden’s job performance and 56 percent disapprove, including 14 percent of those who voted for Biden in 2020.
A majority, 79%, support Biden’s decision not to seek reelection, and nearly two-thirds want him to serve out his term. That number is even higher among Democrats, with nearly nine in 10 supporting him dropping out of the race but also wanting him to stay in office.
Seven in 10 Michigan Democrats want Harris to be the Democratic nominee, while two in 10 have the state’s governor, Gretchen Whitmer, as their favorite.
But in a potential two-way showdown with Trump, Whitmer beats Harris by six points, 52 to 46 percent. She also has more support than Harris among white voters (3 points), women (+3), non-college whites (+4) and independents (+6).
Whitmer is the only candidate surveyed to receive a positive personal rating: 56% of Michigan voters have a favorable opinion of her, while 42% have an unfavorable opinion, a net gain of 14 points. All other candidates, including Harris (-4 points), Trump (-5 points) and Republican vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance (-10 points), receive negative ratings. One in five Michigan voters does not approve of Vance.
Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump signs the papers to formally accept the nomination as First Lady Melania Trump looks on during the final day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Thursday, July 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
Since April, Biden’s favorability rating has fallen 16 points and is currently at minus 20 points, while Trump’s has increased 3 points over the same period.
Four years ago this month, Biden’s favorability rating was +11 and Trump’s was -10 (July 2020).
“While the race may not look all that different based on how the race is playing out, the Democrats are in a distinct position with Harris as the top candidate,” Anderson said. “Biden was incredibly unpopular in Michigan, and now Democrats can hit the reset button by fielding a candidate who is just as likeable as Trump and can campaign with the same vigor.”
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Polpuri
Democrat Elissa Slotkin is leading Republican Mike Rogers by five points (51% to 46%) in the election to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow. Michigan’s primary is on August 6.
About 9% of Trump supporters switched parties to support Slotkin, while 5% of Harris supporters switched parties to support Rogers.
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Conducted July 22-24, 2024 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll included interviews with 1,012 Michigan registered voters randomly selected from the statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with a live interviewer on landline (117) and cell phone (647) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (248). The margin of sampling error for results based on the full sample is ±3 percentage points. Sampling error associated with subgroup results will be higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order may affect results. Weights were applied to age, race, education, and region variables to ensure demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weighting targets include the American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.
Fox News’ Victoria Bharara contributed to this report.
