While support for former President Trump remains stable, Vice President Kamala Harris is outperforming President Biden in four battleground states for 2024, buoyed by strong support from women, black voters and young voters. And while Trump is ahead on key issues, more voters believe Harris is the one who can unite the country and “fight for people like you,” according to the latest Fox News statewide polls in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.
Each survey included about 1,000 registered voters and was conducted between Aug. 23 and 26, after the Democratic National Convention and shortly after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump.
Polls released Wednesday show the race between Harris and Trump is close, with Harris leading by one point in Arizona and two points in Georgia and Nevada, while Trump has a one-point lead in North Carolina — all within the margin of sampling error.
Previous Fox News polls have shown Biden trailing Trump in each state, including by 5 points in Arizona and Nevada (June), 6 points in Georgia (April) and 5 points in North Carolina (February).
New polls show Trump has achieved his 2020 vote share in head-to-head contests in every state except Georgia, and Harris has matched or beaten Biden's 2020 vote share in every state.
In 2020, Trump won North Carolina by just over one point, but Biden narrowly won three other states – Arizona and Georgia by less than one point, and Nevada by more than two points.
Overall, the four-state average gives Harris a one-point lead over Trump, 50% to 49%, and that one-point lead also holds among seven in 10 voters who say they are very motivated to vote this year.
“The results show that Harris has been successful in widening the electoral map. When Biden was on top, the only way a Democratic candidate could secure an Electoral College victory was by winning the blue wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania,” said Democratic pollster Chris Anderson. “With the Sun Belt states at stake, that's no longer the case.” Anderson and Republican Daron Shaw make up the bipartisan team that conducts the poll for Fox News.
FOX News Poll: New matchup, same result — Trump beats Harris by 1 point
Harris has the support of 79% of Black voters, 56% of Hispanic voters, 55% of those under 30 and 51% of those over 65. Those numbers are better than Biden's in Sun Belt states and close to what he ultimately achieved in 2020, according to the Fox News Voter Analysis Election Poll.
The gender gap is 22 points, with women supporting Harris by 11 points and men supporting Trump by 11 points.
Trump has the support of 65% of whites without college degrees, 60% of rural voters and 42% of Hispanics, roughly the same as in 2020. His approval rating among white evangelical Christians has fallen from 83% to 77%. But his approval rating among black voters has nearly tripled, from 7% to 19%.
Democrats are slightly more likely to support Harris (96%) than Republicans are more likely to support Trump (94%), but independents favor Harris by 6 points. An equal share of Trump's 2020 supporters support him (94%), and an equal share of Biden's 2020 supporters support Harris (94%).
Harris holds an 8-point lead among voters who moved to the state within the past decade, while Trump leads by 1 point among the much larger group of longtime residents.
Among new voters (those who have not voted in a general election since before 2016), Harris is up one point.
If voter support for third-party candidates Chase Oliver, Jill Stein, and Cornel West is included, Harris holds a one-point lead over Trump, 48% to 47%. Notably, three in four voters who have a favorable view of Kennedy also support Trump.
By a 7-point margin, more voters see Harris as the candidate who will unite the country: A majority of Democrats (94%) feel that way, but so do more than half of independents (52%) and a minority of Republicans (9%).
Voters are divided on who “will fight for people like you,” with 50% saying Harris and 47% saying Trump. And even though Harris is the sitting vice president, voters rate her on par with Trump in “bringing needed change” (49% vs. 48%).
“The Harris team has accomplished something that would have seemed impossible three weeks ago: She's been seen as a transformative candidate, despite being the sitting vice president, at a time of great uncertainty about the state of the country and low ratings for the administration,” Shaw said. “For now, they've turned Biden's reelection campaign into a referendum on Trump.”
On two of the top three issues, the economy and immigration, more voters trust Trump, while Harris has a large lead on abortion. She also has support on health care, but Trump is the choice for dealing with Israel's war with Hamas. Overall, Trump's issue lead has narrowed compared to his position earlier this year, but Harris has widened Biden's advantage.
Four in 10 voters say the economy is the most important issue in the presidential election, followed by immigration and abortion, which are nearly 30 points lower than the economy. All other issues are in the single digits.
Democratic candidates perform well on personal favorability ratings, with Sun Belt voters who view Minnesota Governor Tim Walz favorably outnumbering those who view him unfavorably by three points, while Harris has a net negative rating of one point. Trump and Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance are both rated five points lower; roughly one in ten have never heard of Waltz or Vance. Views of Harris and Trump in these states are roughly consistent with Fox News' 2020 voter analysis.
Biden's job performance is viewed negatively by 42% of those who approve and 58% who disapprove. Among the 13% who say they “somewhat” disapprove of Biden's job performance, Harris has a 7-point lead over Trump.
FOX News Poll: Harris and Trump in a close race in Michigan
“Campaigns see a surge in support after their conventions, but it usually fades away the next month. That may be the case this time, but this is not a traditional campaign,” Anderson said. “Many people assumed Harris would see a surge in support after Biden dropped out, and that trend has continued.”
Democrats outperform Harris in lower-tier races, while Republicans lag behind Trump
In Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina's lower districts, Democrats hold double-digit leads over Harris by at least 5 points, while Republicans are trailing Trump by 7 points or more. In the Arizona Senate race, Democrat Ruben Gallego is leading Republican Kali Lake 56% to 41%. In the Nevada Senate race, Democrat Jacky Rosen is beating Republican Sam Brown 55% to 41%. In the North Carolina gubernatorial race, Democrat Josh Stein is beating Republican Mark Robinson 54% to 43%.
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Three-quarters of Arizona and Nevada vote in favor of abortion referendums
Arizona and Nevada will have referendums on abortion rights this November. Polls suggest that three-quarters of voters in both states will vote in favor, including at least half of Republicans (50% in Arizona and 54% in Nevada). The only people who are opposed to the referendum are those who describe themselves as “very” conservative.
Topline and Crosstabs
United States: Top Line, Cross Tabulation
Arizona: Top Line, Cross Tabulation
Georgia: Top Line, Cross Tabulation
Nevada: Top Line, Cross Tabulation
North Carolina: Top Line, Cross Tabulation
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The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Beacon Research (Democrat) and Shaw & Company Research (Republican). The battleground state survey was conducted August 23-26 and included 4,053 registered voters randomly drawn from statewide voter files in Arizona (1,014), Georgia (1,014), Nevada (1,026), and North Carolina (999). In Arizona and Nevada, respondents were given the option to complete the interview in English or Spanish. Respondents spoke with a live interviewer on a landline or cell phone, or completed the survey online after receiving a text. The margin of sampling error for results based on the combined sample is ±1.5 percentage points, compared to ±3 percentage points for each state. Sampling error is higher among subgroups. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order may also affect results. Weights are typically applied to age, race, education, and region variables to ensure demographics are representative of the registered voter population. In the combined results, each state is weighted according to its share of the total number of registered voters across the four states.
