Fox News’ latest power rankings show former President Trump holding a slight lead with 251 electoral votes to President Biden’s 241.
Projections continue to suggest the race will narrow down to just four states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada.
Four other states are also highly competitive, including Michigan, Minnesota, Georgia and North Carolina.
But a shift is happening in one state that could be crucial to Trump’s victory.
Opinion polls predict a close and stable election
The latest Fox News poll has Trump ahead of Biden by one point, but that’s within the margin of error.
Most of the quality polls since our last forecast have shown the same result: either Biden or Trump have a one or two point lead, within each poll’s margin of error.
Trump, Biden face challenges in 2024 presidential primary finals
It remains to be seen whether Trump’s criminal conviction for falsifying business records will have any impact on the election campaign. vote A Marist poll conducted in the week before the ruling suggests that won’t be the case.
Trump is leading by mid- to high-single-digit margins in battleground states, particularly the closely contested Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada.
In the Rust Belt states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin), the races are closer, with Trump usually leading by within 1 or 2 points.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. remains a wild card in the race. He received support from 17 percent of registered voters. Marquette Research Two weeks ago.
Most polls show him with roughly equal support from both camps, but Republicans tend to view him more favorably.
Why Trump Will Win
Trump’s consistent lead is good news for the former president’s campaign.
He has made significant gains among groups that traditionally support Democrats, particularly young people, Hispanics and black voters.
new Fox News Power Rankings Issue Tracker In a poll released today, voters say Trump is better suited to handle two of the election’s top three issues: the economy and the border. Voters also say Trump is better mentally and physically suited to do the job.
Biden has a more modest advantage on abortion policy, and voters say he is more honest than Trump.
Biden’s policy woes are unlikely to go away until November: Under his administration, prices will rise dramatically, more illegal immigrants will enter the country, and he himself will likely age.
Democrats claim that voters have “finally woken up” to this election, a rematch of the first in 70 years. Voters are familiar with these candidates and what they stand for.
Why Biden can win
On election night, the only thing that matters is the battle for the 270 electoral votes.
In the absence of election surprises in other states, Biden could retain the presidency by holding Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
There is also reason to believe that support for Biden may strengthen among younger and minority voters as November approaches.
According to a recent Fox News polling analysis, “In April 2020, Biden’s approval rating was 66% among black voters and 52% among Hispanics. He ultimately won much higher percentages of both groups, at 91% and 63%, respectively, according to a November 2020 Fox News voter analysis.”
Close elections also depend on voter turnout.
Biden has strong support from college-educated voters, a highly reliable voting group, and he also leads on the issue of abortion.
Not only was the issue named as the top issue in the latest Fox poll, but it’s also very likely to feature separately on the ballot in Arizona, which is seen as a swing state in the projections.
Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District could be decisive in Trump’s victory
Biden will hold onto the Rust Belt states and, barring any other surprises, should be able to win for another four years.
What kind of surprise is that?
The most likely candidate is Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.
If Biden holds on to Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as every other state he won in the 2020 election, the incumbent president will have 270 electoral votes – the minimum number needed to win the election outright.
One of those 270 votes is from Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.
(Maine and Nebraska are the only states that award electoral votes to both the winner of the statewide vote and the winner of that same vote divided by districts.)
If Trump wins that district, the electoral votes will be tied at 269 each.
Ties are broken in the U.S. House of Representatives, where each state has one vote. If Republicans hold a majority of a state’s seats, Republican representatives will carry that state’s vote.
Assuming the electoral votes are counted as expected, the Republicans do not suffer major losses in the House of Representatives in the next election, and voters in Republican-led states support Trump, Trump would likely win if the electoral votes were tied.
Trump ruling galvanizes donor base, driving huge fundraising surge in May
Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District has elected two Democratic and two Republican presidents in the past four elections.
- In 2020, Biden won with 51.95% of the vote to Trump’s 45.45%.
- In 2016, Trump won with 47.16% of the vote to Clinton’s 44.92%.
- In 2012, Romney won with 52.85% of the vote to Obama’s 45.70%.
- In 2008, Obama won with 49.97% of the vote to McCain’s 48.75%.
Residents of Omaha and its suburbs make up a sizable portion of the district’s population, and the city has a disproportionately high percentage of college-educated people, making it Biden’s most favorable district in a strongly Republican state.
Both parties have their eyes on this part of the state, and this forecast predicts both parties will be investing heavily in the region as November approaches.
Click here to get the FOX News app
This forecast will move Nebraska from a “likelihood D” to a “trend D.”
