Fox News’ first House of Representatives power rankings show more districts in which Republicans have an advantage, but overall the race for a majority is still a 50-50 split.
Fox News Power Rankings predicts control of House map (Fox News)
Two dramatic years in the House haven’t changed voters’ biggest concerns
Political buffs will tell you that the House has been in turmoil for the past few years.
There’s plenty to talk about on TV and social media: the speakership race, the debt ceiling crisis, the expulsion of a sixth House member and the first-ever “Squad” cutbacks.
At the same time, Americans continue to disregard Congress. 16% They approved the job in July (the first time in 20 years that Congress’ approval rating was above 50 percent).
These may seem like weaknesses for the ruling party, but when it comes to congressional elections, Americans put drama and grievances aside.
The biggest issues in the election remain the economy, immigration and abortion, with voters sticking closely to their party on each issue.
The top three issues in battleground states. (Fox News Power Rankings)
FOX News Power Rankings: Willingness to split votes will determine Senate outcome
Therefore, we can expect similar electoral trends in the House of Representatives as in the Senate. A victory for former President Trump would help Republicans retain power in the House, as they did in 2016. A victory for Vice President Kamala Harris would likely help Democrats win the House of Representatives, as they did with President Biden in 2020.
Fox News Power Rankings’ final House election count projections. (Fox News)
Meanwhile, the battle for control of the House of Representatives begins on a 50-50 footing.
Five themes across dozens of competitive districts
Housing Forecast Themes (Fox News Power Rankings)
All House seats are up for election every two years, but only a few are competitive: The projections show that 16 percent of the 435 districts are definitely up for grabs.
There are 19 closely contested races, and because Republicans hold a slim majority in the House of Representatives, the results in these races alone will determine which party wins.
Many competitive races share key characteristics.
Redistricting
Redistricting occurs every 10 years, but litigation over racial and partisan redistricting has led to some states recently redrawing their boundaries. May.
Ultimately, some seats are likely to change hands early on election night.
Alabama and Louisiana Both seats were redrawn following court rulings to have higher proportions of black voters, and both are represented by vacant Republicans, giving Democrats their best chance of a contest tonight.
Meanwhile, in North Carolina, Republicans overwhelmingly approved a more favorable map, with three House seats currently represented by Democrats set to become vacant in November all favoring Republicans.
Fox News Power Rankings: Election Favors Democrats (Fox News)
Redistricting will also affect tight races in New York.
The district currently held by Rep. Brandon Williams, which includes Syracuse, has shifted leftward this year, making it a much tougher fight for the first-term Rep. Williams to hold on to a second term. New York’s 22nd Congressional District is rated D-leaning.
Candidate Quality
One of the reasons the Republican Party failed to live up to expectations in the midterm elections was the quality of its candidates: In other words, it fielded candidates who were ill-suited to their districts, problematic candidates, or unable to campaign effectively.
This year, the party is running with a stronger lineup.
The most notable example is Alaska Congressional DistrictIn 2022, moderate Democrat Mary Peltola pulled off a historic upset by defeating former Gov. Sarah Palin in the final round of the state’s ranked-choice vote tally.
This year, Republicans are hoping to retake the seat through either re-election candidate Nick Begich or Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, both of whom have run stronger campaigns than in previous years.
Peltola is popular across the state. advocate He debates local issues, primarily the state’s fishing industry. This seat is rated D-leaning.
The Fox News Power Rankings have close races listed. (Fox News)
Back on the mainland, Ohio’s 9th Congressional District has been represented by Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur since 1983. She has built her brand around her pro-agriculture and anti-free trade views.
But Ohio’s rightward shift makes the district highly competitive.
In the midterm elections, the Republican Party nominated a candidate aligned with Trump, but struggled to gain the support of moderates. This time, state assemblyman Derek Merrin, who has conservative ideals and ample campaign experience, is running as a Republican.
This seat is a fifty-fifty chance.
Republicans still have candidate problems in several key races. In Washington’s 3rd District, Blue Dog Democrat Rep. Marie Gruzenkamp Perez and Recently proposed that Biden resigned, as did his Republican opponent, Joe Kent.
Kent, a veteran former CIA officer, Controversy That will be the case in 2022, but Republicans will be hoping for a more disciplined campaign this time around.
Trump supports lower-ranking Republican candidates, including in suburban districts
Trump struggled in the suburbs in the last presidential election. Fox News Voter AnalysisHowever, he was 10 points behind Biden among suburban residents overall and 19 points behind Biden among suburban women, meaning he was trailing behind decisively in battleground states.
Republican House members in urban and suburban districts did not fare much better, with challengers such as Nicole Malliotakis in New York’s 11th District, Young Kim and Michelle Steele in suburban California, and Maria Elvira Salazar in Miami flipping Democratic districts.
All of this suggests that Trump has been more beneficial to House Republicans than conventional wisdom would suggest: He’s allowing candidates to make inroads with moderates and independents while drawing out the core “MAGA” voters who cast lower-tier Republican votes.
The districts most favorable to Republicans are ranked by Fox News Power Rankings. (Fox News)
The best example is Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which includes Omaha and its surrounding suburbs.
At the presidential level, the district leans Democratic (and, unlike others, will have its electoral votes in November), and the area has a high percentage of college-educated voters who dislike Trump and are flocking to him to vote against him.
However, the House of Representatives is considered to be dominated by Republicans.
That’s thanks to Rep. Don Bacon, a veteran moderate conservative and Trump critic who has won the district four times since 2016.
This year, he faces a tough challenge from state Assemblyman Tony Vargas, who is running a disciplined and well-funded campaign.
Unlike the presidential election, Republicans have held the lead so far.
Fox News Power Rankings Democrat vs. Republican “Good Night” Analysis. (Fox News)
Vacancies and incumbents in their first term
Several Democrats have left the party in hotly contested districts, including Elissa Slotkin in Michigan’s 7th District and Abigail Spanberger in Virginia’s 7th District.
Moderate women lawmakers from battleground states are leaving their battleground districts to run for the Senate this year.
Republicans are hoping the retirement of these high-profile incumbents will give a boost to their opponents, but with both parties fielding quality replacements, this race will be close (Democrats have an advantage in Virginia’s 7th District).
FOX News Power Rankings: Harris and Trump miss chance to broaden support in VP selection
Democrats are also defending dozens of districts with first-term incumbents, such as Rep. Yadira Carabeo in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District, a newly created district that includes Denver’s northern suburbs and surrounding areas that Carabeo won by less than a percentage point last time. The race is a toss-up.
Competitive elections in blue states
California and New York are dominated by Democrats statewide, but many races are swing states just outside their populous liberal cities.
Fox News Power Rankings Projected House Win Chart. (Fox News)
In California, look at the 13th District, which includes Modesto, the 27th District north of Los Angeles, and the 41st District, which includes Palm Springs.
Republicans narrowly won all three seats in the midterm elections and are currently facing tough reelection battles against well-funded Democratic opponents. Projections show Democrats leaning toward the Democratic side in the 13th and 27th districts, but a close race in the 41st district.
Across the country, in New York, Brandon Williams isn’t the only Republican fighting for his political career.
The 17th, 18th, and 19th districts in New York State’s Hudson Valley region are hotly contested in the midterm elections, with two of the three currently represented by Republicans with strong bipartisan support. Rep. Mike Lawler is the best known, but he must defend the most Democratic district of the two, with Rep. Marc Molinaro in a close race nearby. Both of these districts are close.
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Between them is Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan, whose campaign begins in Lean D.
As the countdown to the Democratic National Convention continues, gubernatorial rankings will be released tomorrow
Voters in 11 states will cast ballots for governor this year, and tomorrow’s Power Rankings will highlight the most competitive races on the map.
And on Sunday, Fox News Democracy 24’s special coverage of the Democratic National Convention will begin with the all-new Power Rankings Issues Tracker.
