Republicans are on track to flip the Senate for the first time in this week's elections. Fox News Power Rankings.
Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris was dancing after the debate, three new close House races emerged, and Republicans lost ground in gubernatorial elections.
Harris emerged stronger in the first debate
Two weeks after the first debate, an average of quality polls has Harris up one point and former President Donald Trump down the same number.
Polls change after the debate.
If these numbers sound familiar, it's because they match the changes following the first debate between Presidents Biden and Trump four years ago.
This could be problematic for the Republican Party: In 2020, Trump was unable to close the polling gap he created after the first debate before coming out stronger in the second. As of today, Harris and Trump have not agreed on terms for a rematch.
Vice President Kamala Harris is gaining support from independents.
FOX News Poll: Voters think Harris outperformed Trump in debates
Harris's gains came from independents more than any other group, who beat Trump by 8 points. Fox News Poll Biden won independents by 15 points last month, but now leads Harris by 12 points. Biden won independents by 15 points in the last election, so Harris' continued lead there could give Biden the advantage on election night. (Poll results among subgroups can be volatile.)
Former President Donald Trump has been stable in an unprecedented cycle.
The same after the debate In opinion polls Trump is down two points among all voters, with the former president at 48% and Harris at 50%. With such a large margin on election night, Trump could be in a difficult position to win. The Electoral College.
A further decline in support for the former president would change that calculation.
Republicans are poised to take control of the Senate
Republicans have had a head start in the Senate this term, and Montana's star candidate is doing more than anyone to lead the GOP to victory.
Fox News Power Rankings Senate Predictions.
The latest projections suggest that Republicans will gain at least 51 seats on election night and Democrats will gain at least 47, meaning the two races will be closely contested.
Montana State breaks out of that category this week.
Fox News Power Rankings Senate Map.
For nearly two decades, the state has been represented by Sen. Jon Tester, one of the few rural Democrats in the state, who has outperformed expectations in three elections, using his farming background and gun rights platform to win.
But Trump won the state by 16 points in 2020, and Tester faces a formidable challenger in Tim Sheehy, a businessman and former Navy SEAL who has run an efficient, disciplined campaign on the economy and the border.
That gives Republicans a better shot at a win in Montana than in Ohio, which has not leaned as much toward Trump as its western neighbor and where Republican candidate Bernie Moreno has made some missteps in the campaign.
Sheehy led with 51% to Tester's 45%. AARP Poll The poll was conducted in late August, and the incumbent Democratic candidate is leading among independents, but not by enough to overcome this conservative group of voters.
Among the mountains that define Montana's landscape lies a mountain of cash. More than $121 million has been spent by campaigns and outside groups so far, according to the report. Open SecretAt least $100 million Retained earningsThis is an unusually large amount for a presidential-level race that is not competitive, amounting to more than $150 per registered voter.
That makes the race tense: Tester has more than three times as much cash as Sheehy, and the Democratic candidate can spend it on local advertising and get-out-the-vote efforts.
If that money can push the race back within the margin of error, Democrats could keep the Senate.
Fox News Power Rankings Senate Tables.
Early voting means “election season” has already begun
Montana goes from a toss up to a lean R.
What will happen in the House of Representatives with 22 close races?
Fox News Power Rankings House Predictions.
The House of Representatives remains close in the latest projections. In fact, with three more races now in that category, it's unclear more than ever which way the House will go.
- California's 45th DistrictPresident Biden won this Southern California district by 6 points in the last election.Dave's Redistricting) But the state's large right-wing Asian American population makes for a tight race. Republicans are pouring money into the race to protect incumbent Rep. Michelle Steele, whose stance on abortion could be problematic for Los Angeles-area voters. Steele is facing Democratic attorney Derek Tran. The race has gone from Republican-dominated to close.
Fox News Power Rankings House Predictions.
- Iowa 1st Congressional District: The Des Moines Register recently Survey results Harris' four-point lead over Trump in Iowa's presidential election drew attention. This could have an impact on lower-districts. Republican Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks, a second-term Republican, won by six votes in 2020 and won easily in the midterm elections due to redistricting, but she remains weak in this district of Davenport and Iowa City. The Democratic candidate is former state representative Christina Bohannan. Iowa's 1st Congressional District has gone from a sure Republican victory to a close race.
Fox News Power Rankings House races are changing.
- Nebraska 2nd Congressional DistrictThe Omaha-centered district has been represented by Republican Rep. Don Bacon since 2017. Bacon and the district made headlines last week when they signed a letter calling for Nebraska to become a “winner-take-all” state before the presidential election. Had the gamble paid off, it would have favored Trump, but by pushing for the change, Bacon could be at risk from some of the moderate voters he has relied on in past elections. Bacon will face off against Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas, whose district has gone from leaning Republican to being close.
Nebraska Republican Senator Opposes Electoral College Changes That Could Help Trump Re-Elect
Fox News Power Rankings House Table.
Republican candidate Robinson, North Carolina
The final wake-up call in a sleepy gubernatorial election cycle came last Thursday when CNN reported that North Carolina's Republican lieutenant governor, Mark Robinson, had called himself a “black Nazi” on a pornography site he frequently visited between 2008 and 2012. Robinson denied the report.
Fox News Power Rankings Governors Map.
Robinson is struggling in this race. At least Four senior officials resign Allies have withdrawn from his campaign, and the Republican Governors Association is not spending any more money on advertising.
No one knows how this will affect Trump — voting began with Robinson's name a few rows down the ballot than Trump's, and Democrats are reminding voters of the strong, consistent praise the former president has given Robinson — but Trump's solid support among Republicans and the state's history of splitting the vote mean he's likely to remain competitive.
Fox News Power Rankings Governors Table.
Meanwhile, the power rankings have already Lean D Because of the Robinson scandal earlier, they are now ranked D grade.
Voting has begun, six weeks until Election Day
vote It has begun Twenty-one states, including Wisconsin, North Carolina, Minnesota and Virginia, will be doing so. By the end of the month, more than half of all states will have sent ballots to their voters.
While many voters are expected to cast their ballots early, Election Day itself is just six weeks away.
Next week, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Ohio Republican Sen. J.D. Vance will take part in a debate in New York hosted by CBS News. Fox News reported Simulcast The debate will take place in a special hosted by Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum at 8:20 pm ET.
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Fox News Media Suggested The second Harris vs. Trump debate will be held in October, moderated by McCollum and Beyer.
