President Biden’s decision not to run for reelection gives Democrats an unprecedented opportunity to rerun this election.
As of now, Vice President Kamala Harris is the most likely candidate.
Many party leaders are backing her candidacy, and no other candidates with a strong chance of winning the nomination are running.
Harris is Ask the Voters “Think outside of what’s been done and think about what’s possible.” Her party could do just that if she rises to the top of the ticket, but it remains to be seen whether she would fare better against former President Trump than Biden or any other candidate in the general election.
Kamala Harris announces 2024 presidential run after Biden drops out
Vice President Kamala Harris has confirmed that she will run for the Democratic presidential nomination following President Biden’s decision to end his reelection campaign. (Chris Dumond/Getty Images)
So Biden’s decision to drop out may have been driven more by his own weaknesses than by Harris’ strengths. Meanwhile, Harris doesn’t carry the burden of age, but polls suggest the administration’s unpopularity does.
Harris is expected to defend issues Democrats are winning and change party positions on issues they are losing. The campaign resumes today.
Throwing President Biden out of the race may have been more of a problem for Congress than the White House.
We should wait for new polls before drawing any conclusions about Harris or any other Democratic candidate.
Several recent polls have asked voters whether they would support a Democratic candidate other than Biden.
But so far, poll respondents have only been asked to evaluate hypothetical scenarios.
Voters will likely hear more about the pros and cons of the new candidates.
The election remains tight, and there are early signs that President Biden is struggling in battleground states. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnick)
Other voters will just start to get to know them.
All these factors will influence their standing among the electorate.
As vice president, Harris is better known to voters than any other candidate, so she is likely to have the least impact on the Democratic nominee’s standing.
Democratic delegates turn attention to Kamala Harris after Biden drops out of 2024 presidential race
But polls show it remains to be seen whether her elevation will make a difference in the race.
We’ll know more details within the next two weeks.
Even after voters become aware that a new candidate has been selected, it will take time to gather enough voters to conduct polls and understand how the race has changed.
Think of this as a three-step process:
- Polls must be conducted in full after the news breaks — the further away they are conducted from that date, the better chance they have of capturing voters’ informed opinions of Harris and other candidates.
- Pollsters need to “get in the field” by designing a credible survey and collecting responses from a sample of voters over several days, then process and publish the results.
- Multiple polling organizations should publish their results so analysts can take outliers into account, and the ideal combination would include both national and battleground-state polls.
A good rule of thumb is to wait about 2 weeks.
The election remains tight, and there are early signs that Biden is struggling in key battleground states.
Polls conducted after Biden’s deadly debate performance showed him in a close race in national polls.
But he began to struggle in the most competitive states, and his path to victory narrowed.
An average of five post-debate polls, including one from Fox News, showed Biden with 46% of registered voters and Trump with 47% — a difference that’s not statistically significant. (The polls compared both Biden and Harris to Trump.)
Five post-debate national polls put Vice President Kamala Harris at 47% approval among registered voters, matching former President Trump’s approval rating. (Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images)
A slightly clearer picture is emerging in battleground states.
Biden was in close races in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, two Rust Belt states crucial on his path to winning the 270 electoral votes.NYT/Siena, AARP).
Biden’s vote share in Georgia was also within the margin of error, where black voters were key to Biden’s 2020 victory.Australia Japan Society).
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But in Michigan, another Rust Belt state crucial to Biden’s candidacy, a poll released yesterday showed Trump leading Biden in a head-to-head race, 49% to 42%, a 7-point lead (Detroit Free Press).
Democrats may have been concerned by a recent Virginia poll that showed Biden at 46% to Trump at 44%, a two-point difference well within the poll’s sampling error.NYT/Siena). Biden won the state by 10 points in 2020.
The poll is a snapshot in time and doesn’t take into account the challenges Biden will face in his final 100 days as he holds down the leadership of the free world, including presidential debates and a rigorous election schedule.
The polls and all of these factors likely influenced how Democrats thought about Biden’s chances of reelection and his decision.
Former President Trump’s influence remains a major factor in this election cycle. (Bill Priano/Getty Images)
Harris has roughly the same approval rating as Biden, including among key groups, but she is viewed more favorably.
On the surface, Harris’ chances look about the same.
In the same five national polls conducted after the debate, the vice president was tied with Trump at 47% approval among registered voters each.
That’s two points higher than Biden’s figure in the same poll.
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Her position is echoed in polls from three competitive states that tested both Biden and Harris.
In Georgia, Trump is leading Harris 51% to 46%, with Harris up one point on Biden’s numbers, but the gap between the two candidates overall is widening (AJC).
In Pennsylvania, Trump beat Harris 48% to 46%, giving him a 2-point lead over Biden but within the margin of error (NYT/Siena).
In Virginia, Harris’s approval rating was 48% and Trump’s was 44%, a 2-point lead over Biden but within the margin of error (NYT/Siena).
These numbers suggest that the currently polarized electorate sees Harris in the same way as Biden: Her values are the same as Biden’s, and her accomplishments and failures are the same as Biden’s.
Voters view Vice President Harris more favorably than President Biden. (Bizayev Tesfaye/Las Vegas Review-Journal/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
And there is no significant difference between Biden and Harris’ support among key voters in their potential run against Trump, according to a Fox News poll released last week.
- Black Voters (Biden 69%, Harris 69%)
- Women Voters (Biden 51%, Harris 52%)
- Voters under 30 (Biden 47%, Harris 51%)
- Independents (Biden 47%, Harris 48%)
- Moderate (Biden 53%, Harris 55%)
(Fox News Poll, July 7-10, MOE: Black ±9, Women ±4, Under 30 ±7.5, Independents ±7, Moderates ±6)
So far, her path to winning 270 electoral votes looks roughly the same as Biden’s.
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Voters view Harris more favorably than Biden.
The same Fox News poll found that 44% of voters have a favorable opinion of Harris, while 54% view her unfavorably.
Those numbers are similar to Trump (-12) and better than Biden (-20).
At 59, Harris doesn’t have the age problem that Biden does, a concern that voters were already worried about before the debate, but it exploded afterward.
This is likely what has increased her popularity.
Despite many unknowns, there are signs of renewed energy among Democratic strategists and continued enthusiasm within the Republican Party.
Again, these results reflect where Harris currently stands as voters perceive her as Biden’s running mate. Her approval rating, path to 270 votes, and favorability ratings could all change in the coming weeks.
For example, Democrats may become more enthusiastic about their own candidates.
Democratic fundraising platform ActBlue I said yesterday The day was “the biggest fundraising day of the 2024 election cycle,” with Harris raising $47 million since the start of her campaign.
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Democratic strategists are also much more enthusiastic about the race than they have been for over a year now, and they too seem galvanized by the news.
Democratic fundraising platform ActBlue announced that yesterday was “the biggest fundraising day of the 2024 election cycle,” with Vice President Kamala Harris raising $47 million since the start of her campaign. (AP Photo/Molly Gash)
Other Democrats poll similarly to Harris
The July Fox News poll also asked about California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who have been mentioned by the media as possible candidates to replace Biden.
(Newsom Supported President Harris, Whitmer Reportedly do the same).
Both candidates are in a close race with Trump.
Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign has raised nearly $50 million since endorsing Biden
Democrats have not yet formally nominated Biden, so existing procedures mean another candidate could compete in the general election.
No presidential candidate has ever announced so close to Election Day that he will not seek another term.
But because Democrats have not yet formally nominated Biden, all 50 states can endorse a new candidate who will appear on the general election ballot.
The party is expected to confirm this week that the current nomination process will continue as scheduled.
Polls conducted after Biden’s deadly debate performance showed him in a close race in national polls. (Anna Moneymaker)
Under the process, candidates were awarded delegates after primaries earlier this year, nearly all of whom have pledged to support Biden. The only step left is for the delegates to formally nominate a candidate in a party “roll call vote.”
This is the exact same roll call vote Republicans took at their convention last week.
The candidate who receives the majority of the delegate votes will be the nominee, which is likely to be Harris, but there is no guarantee.
Harris needs to prove Biden won’t just hand her the nomination and “earn” her place in the race: Axelrod
The most pressing question is who she will choose as her running mate, from among the moderate governors Andy Beshear, Roy Cooper and Josh Shapiro.
Democrats also must decide when to hold a roll call vote.
Recently, the party committee in charge of the process said it was expected to take place during the first seven days of August.
Historic election cycle continues
Power rankings projections were already on hold following two other political shocks in this historic election cycle: Biden’s deadly debate performance and the assassination attempt on former President Trump.
Now Democrats will know their new presidential candidate.
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Once the party completes its nominating process, it will move on to the Democratic National Convention, which begins in Chicago on August 19th.
(Tournament Chair Mignon Moore reaffirmed the date yesterday.)
Former President Trump agreed to participate in a presidential debate with Fox News in October. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
Democrats also must quickly decide what to do about future presidential debates.
The Biden and Trump campaigns had previously agreed to hold the presidential debate on ABC in September, but Biden’s decision prompted Trump to call for it to be held on Fox News. Harris had also agreed to hold the vice presidential debate on CBS in August, while Trump would host it on Fox News, possibly at an HBCU. Trump had also previously agreed to hold the presidential debate on Fox News in October.
Whatever happens, Fox News will be covering Democracy ’24.
Get the latest 2024 election campaign updates, exclusive interviews and more on Fox News Digital’s Election Hub.
