Democrats won in Indiana. Republicans won in New Mexico. and an election in which Missouri is decided by fewer than 4,000 votes.
All of that happened in the last 20 years.
These results are little more than trivia questions today (the answer is 2008, 2004, and 2008 again). At the time, they raised eyebrows and changed our understanding of voters.
Surprises happen during election week. And when national elections are this close, one unexpected blow could decide who wins the White House.
Harris is still closer to 270 than Trump, but it's anyone's game.
Vice President Harris still has the lead in this week's forecast. The paper predicts Harris will win at least 241 electoral votes to Trump's 219.
Presidential predictions from FOX News Power Rankings.
Her advantage is not as great as it was in September, and as I said in this column. mentionedbattleground states usually, and almost always, win and lose at the same time. The six states in this projection represent 78 votes, enough to hand either candidate a victory on election night.
National polls show close race: Quinnipiac investigation Harris and former President Trump are tied in approval ratings with voters, 48% to 48%, but Marist have Candidate approval ratings range from 50% to 48%, well within the poll's sampling error.
FOX News Power Rankings: Trump maintains lead on top two issues
Neither poll shows Trump slipping away from the national electorate. In other recent polls, Erosion worth points After the presidential debate in September.
Fox News Power Rankings Presidential Map.
Polling in battleground states is sparse. (hurricane helen destroying communities in Georgia and North Carolina; hurricane milton It is expected to land in Florida soon. This affects polling accuracy in these regions).
Overall, this race is still a difficult game for everyone.
Look out for surprises in October
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance debated in New York City a week ago. While Mr. Vance has largely shattered the persona Democrats have built, Mr. Walz has stumbled out of the gate.
a flash voting Neither candidate emerged victorious that night. As always, to properly assess the impact of a poll, we wait for the results of multiple polls conducted in the weeks following the debate.
It was the only event scheduled for this month that could surprise voters. (Fox News Media proposed The second Harris-Trump debate will take place in late October).
Four weeks left until election night.
Of course, even more influential in changing the shape of racing have been the unexpected events that have occurred over the past few years. And two categories of events have already resurfaced.
- bad weather: Hurricane Sandy hit the Northeast in late October 2012. The collaboration between President Obama and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie was a landmark moment. This year Helen and Milton are testing candidates. President Trump visited Georgia and North Carolina last week, and Harris visited Asheville over the weekend with Gov. Roy Cooper.
- foreign policy: A video taken by Osama bin Laden four days before the 2004 election refocused the campaign on 9/11, national security, and America's war on terror. Yesterday marked one year since the Hamas terrorist attack in Israel and the escalating war between Ukraine and Russia. Both are reminders of global instability under the Biden administration.
FOX News poll: Voters cite high prices as top motivator for voting
Polarization will limit the impact of these events on horse racing. But keep an eye on independent support for Harris and Trump in the coming weeks. those voters fake 5% of voters in 2020 gave President Biden a 15-point lead. Recent polls show Harris in that position. baseball field. Trump will likely need to get it back if he is to win the election.
Two states with potential surprises in November
Races likely to get a D and races likely to get an R in the Fox News Power Rankings.
There are nine “likely” races on the Power Rankings map. The two states that will have the biggest impact on the race are Florida and Virginia.
Former President Trump improved his performance florida In the 2020 presidential election, his margin of victory was up to around 372,000 votes.
This is a 3.4-point win, the second-closest win of the cycle. (His closest match was the top-ranked University of North Carolina, which he won by 1.3 points.)
Florida is likely to be an R in the power rankings.
Republicans have a big advantage. The state's white working-class and older voters are leaning toward Mr. Trump, while the state's large Hispanic population, particularly the Cuban and Venezuelan communities, has moved to the right in recent years.
While Republicans won big at every level in the midterm elections and enjoy an advantage of more than 1 million registered voters, most notably Democrats have not made any major investments.
Democrats hope Republican incumbent Rick Scott's tight Senate race, in which he personally spent more than $8 million, means the presidential election is closer than people think I am doing it. Florida is also one of three competitive states with abortion bills on the ballot.
Harris will need a big night to turn the Sunshine State around. It will also be the first state to turn the battlefield blue.
Florida remains at Unlikely R in the rankings.
Trump's victory virginia This would be shocking, especially considering Biden won this state by more than 10 points in 2020.
Virginia is probably a D in the power rankings.
The state has higher proportions of black, suburban, and college-educated voters than other parts of the country, and all three groups are contributing to the Democratic lead. Republicans talked about Virginia after June's presidential debate, but the race has changed and neither party is currently making any major investments in the state.
Harris leads in Virginia.
Some polls show the race is far from over for Republicans. a investigation A Virginia Commonwealth University poll in September found Harris' approval rating among registered voters to be 47%, compared to Trump's 37%. Washington Post poll Previously Harris' approval rating was 50% that month, while Trump's approval rating was 42%.
Still, it would take a blowout in the other direction for Old Dominion to reject Harris. Virginia remains a likely D race.
4 weeks left until election night
1.5 million voters have cast their votes so far.
More than 1.5 million voters have cast their votes as the countdown to election night continues. Early voting has begun in the following regions:
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Harris ticket continues media tour President Trump is scheduled to hold a rally in Scranton, Pennsylvania this week. Republicans did it. surprisingly well In recent years there is.
