Fox News Power Rankings, Hotly contested gubernatorial election. (Fox News Power Rankings)
All eyes will be on the governors’ mansions in New Hampshire, North Carolina and Washington as voters in 11 states head to the polls in November’s election.
Retirement of incumbents creates opportunity for both parties to flip states
The biggest challenge for gubernatorial candidates this year is getting noticed.
With the presidential election underway and control of the House and Senate at stake, it’s easy to forget that several state gubernatorial races are also on the line.
But there are exciting election races unfolding across the state.
FOX News Power Rankings: Five themes emerge in the House races
In New Hampshire, Democrats are seeking victory in a hotly contested race after Republican Governor Chris Sununu decided not to run for reelection.
Republicans are trying to flip North Carolina, where voters twice elected Democrat Gov. Roy Cooper, who is term-limited, and then elected President Trump in the last two elections. The battle will be decided by how the vote is split.
Plus, while Democrats have a clear advantage in Washington, Republicans are hoping that sending a sheriff to town will keep the race close.
Fox News Power Rankings for the 2024 Gubernatorial Election. (Fox News Power Rankings)
Republicans are also on the defensive in seven safe states, including North Dakota, Utah and Vermont, while Democrats have a safe race in Delaware.
New Hampshire
The most competitive state on the map is New Hampshire, where Sununu announced he would not run for a fifth term this year.
The governor is one of the few Northeastern Republicans who has stayed out of the culture wars and is popular with voters for his fiscal stewardship. He won the last presidential election by about 32 points.
New Hampshire is currently a close race, according to Fox News Power Rankings. (Fox News Power Rankings)
New Hampshire has yet to hold a primary for governor, but leading Republican candidates include former Sen. Kelly Ayotte and New Hampshire Sen. Chuck Morse, who is running closely along Sununu’s playbook and received his endorsement last week.
Leading Democratic candidates include former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and executive councillor Cinde Warmington, who are running left-of-centre campaigns focusing on family and healthcare issues.
FOX News Power Rankings: Willingness to split votes will determine Senate outcome
New Hampshire’s leftward shift at the presidential level is good news for Democrats, who have been starving for an open contest.
But Sununu’s strong brand could live on in Ayotte, making the odds even.
North Carolina
North Carolina has a long history of vote splitting in presidential and gubernatorial elections.
Republicans have won all but one of the Tar Heel State’s presidential elections since 1980 (Obama narrowly won in 2008), but Democrats have won all but three of the state’s gubernatorial elections during that same period.
The Fox News Power Rankings rated North Carolina as “leaning toward D.” (Fox News Power Rankings)
There are signs that the tradition may continue this year.
Democrats have fielded Attorney General Josh Stein since 2017. He has run on a pro-business, pro-police platform and has campaigned on the need to protect abortion rights — a good combination of issues for a Democratic candidate running in a close state.
The Republican candidate is Lt. Governor Mark Robinson, who has close ties to former President Trump, who endorsed him, and gave an impassioned speech at the Republican National Convention about rising prices and the American Dream.
But Robinson has a lot of problems in the race: he has condemned homosexuality, spread conspiracy theories, used anti-Semitic slurs, previously supported a “no compromise” anti-abortion policy and now supports a 12-week abortion ban with limited exceptions.
Stein nearly tripled Robinson’s fundraising in the second quarter of this year.
A strong showing for Trump would likely lead to Robinson’s victory, but Stein has the advantage and is off to a strong start. The race is rated D-leaning.
Washington
Washington voters will choose a new governor after Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee announced last year that he would not run for a fourth term.
Fox News’ power rankings give Washington a “Probable D.” (Fox News Power Rankings)
Inslee governs a heavily Democratic state: Washington last elected a Republican governor in 1985, and Inslee has increased his vote share in every election since his first victory.
But the first time he ran, and the last time the state held a contest, voters gave it a close call: Inslee won 51.5% of the vote to his Republican opponent’s 48.5%, a margin of just 3 percentage points.
Twelve years later, it’s now Dave Reichert’s turn to bring it to the races, a Republican challenger and former congressman who hopes his long career as a county sheriff still gives him prominence in the state. Struggling Involved in crime; and Avoided I agree with Trump.
Democrat Bob Ferguson, a three-term attorney general, has a clear lead in the race, having raised more than $9.3 million, more than double Reichert’s $4.5 million, partly thanks to leftover money from his previous campaign. Ferguson is campaigning on abortion and workers’ rights issues.
This race is probably rated a D.
Fox News Power Rankings for the 2024 Gubernatorial Election. (Fox News Power Rankings)
An all-new issue tracker rounds out the week
Fox News Power Rankings are now available for over 500 races in November. The complete set of predictions can be found at Election Hub.
Click here to get the FOX News app
Sunday, Fox News Democracy 24 Special Report The Democratic National Convention begins in Chicago.
How to watch Fox News Sunday Local Station and Fox News Channel, check back here for our first Power Rankings Issues Tracker that puts Harris at the top of the Democratic field.
