For the first time since World War II, France is seeing more deaths than births, a shift that occurred a decade earlier than anticipated by the country’s statistics office.
Data released by France’s National Institute of Statistics and Economic Research (INSEE) indicated on Tuesday that 651,000 deaths are projected for 2025, reflecting a 1.5% rise from the previous year. Officials attributed this increase partly to a severe winter flu outbreak earlier this year.
According to Sylvie Le Mines, who heads demographic and social research at INSEE, this trend is expected to persist. She noted that 2026 will mark the first year when baby boomers reach the age of 80, as reported by Le Figaro.
On the other hand, the number of births is forecasted to drop by 2.1%, with an anticipated 645,000 babies born in 2025. This represents the lowest figure since 1942 and shows a 24% decline compared to the peak in 2010.
As a result, France will experience a natural population decrease of 6,000 people for the first time since World War II. This decline comes a decade earlier than INSEE’s earlier projections, which had indicated that this demographic decline wouldn’t happen until 2035.
Despite this drop, France’s overall population is still on the rise, reaching 69.1 million. Similar to other stagnant European nations, this growth of about 500,000 is largely due to immigration.
Statistics from INSEE reveal that by 2024, the foreign-born population in France is expected to hit a record 7.7 million, making up more than one in ten residents born outside the country.
This natural decrease in population has been attributed to President Macron’s population rearmament. Critics argue that two years in, many key elements of this plan remain unaddressed, and Macron’s strategies to counter Marine Le Pen’s populist party have mired the government in political instability.
Last year, France’s birth rate continued to fall, decreasing from 1.61 children to 1.56 children per woman in 2024. This rate is well below the 2.1 children needed for population replacement, as per the INSEE report.
An official statistician remarked, “You have to go back to the end of World War I to see the total fertility rate this low.”
Similar to trends in other Western countries facing population decline, many women are now postponing childbirth until their 30s. Interestingly, the average age for first-time mothers is projected to rise to 31.2 years by 2025. Just two decades ago, this average was under 30.
INSEE’s Sylvie Le Mines pointed out that fertility rates “continue to decline among women aged 25 to 34, who are typically the most fertile, while remaining stable among women over 35, where fertility has historically risen.”
