Wisconsin Gubernatorial Race Upset
Francesca Hong, the leading Democratic candidate in the Wisconsin gubernatorial race, faced a surprising defeat this past Tuesday, raising questions about the reliability of polling organizations in the U.S.
- +18 – August 5th
- +22 – July 27th
- +20 – July 22nd
- +13 – July 20th
- +11 – July 16th
Recent polling had indicated a close race, with Hong trailing her opponent by a narrow margin of 39.4 to 39.8 percent.
Hong, a member of the Wisconsin State Assembly since 2020, has expressed controversial views. She opposes Thanksgiving, seeks to abolish the U.S. Senate and ICE, and plans to eliminate Wisconsin’s school choice program. She has also publicly acknowledged her bipolar disorder and has criticized pro-Israel expressions in public spaces.
In a personal anecdote, she mentioned experiencing anxiety at a local restaurant, Culver’s, citing discomfort around what she perceived as racial bias from fellow diners. This incident involved her son, who is of mixed heritage.
While she might present a relatable image, some criticize her as having extreme and inconsistent views that challenge mainstream American values.
Moreover, her recent media appearances did not help her campaign. Despite having a significant lead after the resignation and endorsement of her closest rival, Lieutenant Governor Mandela Burns, she struggled to maintain that momentum. Many in her party were unsettled by her performance on national television, where her confidence appeared to falter.
So, what went wrong for the pollsters?
The prediction errors stemmed partly from the timing of their surveys. Polling ceased about one to two weeks before the election, leading them to overlook shifts in the race as Hong’s public speaking and decision-making came into question.
This isn’t the first time polling inaccuracies have surfaced; similar issues arose during the 1944 presidential election when polls suggested a comfortable lead for Republican Thomas Dewey, only for him to lose to Democrat Harry Truman, prompting the famous but misleading headline, “Dewey defeats Truman.”
The outcome is a boon for the Republican candidate, Tom Tiffany, who is now up against Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley. What remains certain is that, regardless of the eventual results, the situation could have been more concerning had Hong secured her primary victory given the state’s split political landscape.
