UFC 301 will be broadcast live from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on Saturday.
Early prelims begin at 6pm ET on ESPN 2, with the main card kicking off at 10pm ET.
With three PPV cards in the next nine weeks and several high-end fight nights scheduled to fill in the gaps, it’s a great time to be a MMA fan.
Last week, despite a near-miss split decision with a +200 moneyline and a +270 prop, we only made a profit of 1.8 units. It could have been a great night at the office.
The 18% ROI sets up a big PPV for Saturday, with multiple Brazilians fighting in their home country.
Please pay attention to the judges’ homely decisions throughout the 13 matches on this card.
UFC 301 odds, predictions
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Arceg
It’s a surprising title win for challenger Steve Arseg, who faces Alexandre Pantoja in the volatile flyweight division.
Calculations in this division are seemingly meaningless, as former champion Deveción Figueiredo defeated Pantoja. Brandon Moreno has defeated Figueiredo many times, but he has not been able to win against Pantoja throughout his career.
In other words, Pantoja is a man with a champion pedigree and the odds to be a champion.
Pantoja is a heavy favorite mainly due to his grappling ability, but I actually expect Erseg to dominate the exchange of blows. He is not even a fish on the ground.
Erceg is extremely talented and athletic with a strong fastball combination that I think will make us scream “And new!” Pantoja’s path to victory this weekend is much more uncertain than the tape would have you believe.
Erceg moves forward, but Pantoja’s leg kicks are not strong enough to prevent him from walking, but Erceg’s grapple is solid enough to avoid losing position.
Pick: Steve Artheg ML (+160, Caesars) | KO/TKO (+420, FanDuel)
Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo
Jose Aldo returns from an extended absence and returns to Brazil one last time to end his UFC career in style.
Aldo is one of the greatest athletes in UFC history, and was the UFC featherweight champion for several years while also playing professional soccer.
He has a slight disadvantage against Jonathan Martinez, who is a leg-kicking specialist at heart.
No matter how many leg kicks they exchange, it’s hard to believe that Martinez can leg kick Aldo around the Octagon.
Aldo essentially invented the low leg kick we see today, and Martinez has built a career around it.
Aldo could teach a lesson in his home country that everyone must have forgotten, and of course, there is a lack of USADA testing these days.
But in reality, this would probably be a very risky split decision with either Aldo or Martinez agreeing.
Get an overview of the best US sports betting sites and apps
Aldo should be the bet, he’s on the side, but he’s playing it safe, so you should bet on him taking this fight to the end.
This match will be decided more often than the odds indicate 65.52%.
Feel free to bite Aldo with a split decision at very long odds of +700.
Pick: Game goes to decision (-190, DraftKings) | Aldo, split decision (+700, DraftKings)
Full card picks for UFC 301
- Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Arceg (+154): Steve Arceg ML (+160, Caesars) | KO/TKO (+420, FanDuel)
- Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo (+120): Match goes to decision (-190, DraftKings) | Aldo, split decision (+700, DraftKings)
- Anthony Smith vs. Vitor Petrino (-575): Petrino by KO/TKO (+110, FanDuel)
- Michel Pereira vs. Ihor Poteria (+470): Match goes to decision (+350, Caesars)
- Paul Craig vs. Caio Boralho (-650): Boralho KO/TKO (+225, Caesars)
- Jack Shore vs. JoAnderson Brito (-180): Brito ITD (+120, DraftKings)
- Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Jasmin Lucindo (-395): Pass
- Elf Brenner vs. Miktibek Olorubai (-258): Olorubai by decision (+148, Bet Rivers)
- Joaquin Silva vs. Drucker Klose (-185): Klose ML
- Mauricio Luffy vs. Jamie Malarkey (+180): Luffy ML
- Dione Barbosa vs. Ernesta Kalekaite (-230): Barbosa via submission (+250, Bet Rivers)
- Ismael Bonfim vs. Vinc Pichel (+400): Bonfim KO/TKO (+175, FanDuel)
- Alessandro Costa vs. Kevin Borjas (+105): Borjas’ money line (+105)
