The Post's Erich Richter shares his picks and predictions for Week 10 of the NFL season..
Sunday
Falcons (-3.5) vs. Saints
The Falcons are a dark horse team in the Super Bowl, having won four of the past five.
Kirk Cousins is out and Drake London is expected to play.
There are also concerns that a new coach could jump-start an embarrassing Saints team, but I have no interest in backing them here.
This is in part because Bijan Robinson is one of the best running backs in the league and the Saints have allowed the second-most yards per carry this year (5.1).
New Orleans will be attacked in Week 10.
Panthers (+6.5) vs. Giants
The Giants haven't been favored since Week 2 of 2023, when they went winless against the Cardinals.
The Giants aren't as bad as their current record suggests, ranking 23rd in DVOA, ahead of Dallas and Cleveland.
The reason I favor the Panthers against the spread is Big Blue's run defense, which is the worst in the league.
Considering the Giants have the worst red zone touchdown rate (40) in the NFL.
The Giants can't cover the touchdown spread if they can't score one point in more than half of the time they reach it.
Broncos (+8) vs. Chiefs
The Broncos are getting sacks on 9.75 percent of their throws, the third-highest rate in the NFL.
The undefeated Chiefs have a big game against the Bills next week, which could complicate this game against Denver.
My model has the Chiefs as a five-point favorite, which is a big number that makes backdoor coverage even more likely in today's NFL, where every team is looking for two points.
Amount charged to COLTS (-4)
The Bills are in the top five in yards per play and yards per play allowed.
Buffalo is well-coached defensively and reloads easily, but Joe Flacco could be under siege all weekend and they will be without top receiver Michael Pittman Jr.
49ers (-6.5) vs. Buccaneers
The 49ers are second in the league in the passing game, according to DVOA.
If Tampa Bay had the receivers, they would have enough coverage to even beat the 49ers.
The Buccaneers are currently without Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Jalen McMillan.
There are too many injuries to overcome for the 49ers, who have Christian McCaffrey back.
Steelers (+3) vs. Commanders
This is the only top-10 DVOA defense Jaden Daniels has faced this year.
Chicago is ranked 11th and is presented as the best defensive matchup ever, but the managers scored just 18 points, six of which came on Hail Marys.
Hail Marys doesn't work here. Mike Tomlin is a spiritual person.
There's no way the commander would be favored by three people.
Vikings (-7) vs. Jaguars
If you watched Mac Jones at all in the preseason or on sweepstakes duty, you saw a quarterback who was a shell of his former self.
As a starter last year, Jones had the fifth-lowest success rate against blitzes.
Brian Flores and the Vikings have the second-most blitzes in the NFL and are second in forced plays that result in turnovers, according to FTN.
Minnesota should roll here even though it's on the road.
Patriots (+6) vs. BEARS
Neither team is good on this team. Chicago has the fourth-most yards per carry and has the third-worst run DVOA in the league.
New England isn't very good against the run either.
They are fifth-worst in run defense DVOA.
The current atmosphere in Chicago is terrible, but Rhamondre Stevenson should be able to stop the situation.
Titans (+7.5) vs. Chargers
Los Angeles has changed its strategy in recent weeks, letting Justin Herbert play around when throwing the ball.
After averaging 23.25 pass attempts per game through four weeks, the Chargers averaged 33 pass attempts per game over the next four weeks.
The Titans allow the fewest yards per pass attempt in the NFL and have a top-10 defense according to DVOA.
Expect a low-scoring game with the Chargers winning a close game.
Eagles (-7) vs. Cowboys
Based on this line, no one trusts Nick Sirani — Cooper Rush is Dallas' starting quarterback.
Fantasy Life projects Dak Prescott's rushing move to be worth 5.2 points against the spread.
Dallas has valuable points here as they opened at +3 against the spread, and 7 is an important number.
This is a big gamble.
Jets (-1.5) vs. Cardinals
Advanced analysis has determined that this is the worst betting line of the weekend, and the Jets should never be favored here. Nevertheless, Sharp is going full force on this route.
The Jets opened at +1 and moved to favorite status.
Sharp bettors continue to back Gang Green, and I plan to do the same.
The Jets had 10 days to prepare for the season with another win.
Texans (+3.5) vs. Lions
Nico Collins is the most important part of the Texans offense without CJ Stroud.
With their star receiver likely to play this weekend, the Lions, who have passed every test this season, may have a hard time covering him.
Don't forget that the Texans' defense isn't overpowering either, ranking second in defensive DVOA.
Do you want to bet on the NFL?
Monday
RAMS (-1.5) vs. Dolphins
Two teams that have had injuries throughout the season will face each other.
Both appeared to be healthy, but it looks like Tyreek Hill won't be able to appear on Monday Night Football.
No one knows if he'll actually play, but it's impossible to bet on Miami without him.
Check out the injury report and bet on Hill to be out for the Rams this weekend.
last week: 8-6
season: 60-68-1.
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Erich Richter is a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu but has a black belt in mixed martial arts gambling. During football season, he proved to be a huge moneymaker for the Post in the player prop market the past two seasons. Always betting on the long shot, the return on investment from 2022 onwards is 30.15%.
