The Post's Erich Richter shares his picks and predictions for Week 13 of the NFL season..
Sunday
Steelers (+3) vs. Bengals
Another physical AFC North affair won't necessarily translate to success for Joe Burrow and the Bengals.
With temperatures expected to reach the teens in Ohio, Barrow has already said he's worried about his surgically repaired wrist in the cold.
They are not equipped to win in situations like this, especially against TJ Watt and the Steelers defense.
Seahawks (+1) vs. JETS
Geno Smith will get his revenge as he is in the same position he was in when Geno Smith left the team in 2016.
Do you really envision the Jets being able to cover DK Metcalf, Jackson Smith-Njiba, and Tyler Lockett?
Add in the fact that Pro Football Focus ranks the Jets' run defense as the sixth-worst and the Seahawks' rushing offense as the fifth-worst, and you have a recipe for disaster. The Jets lost again.
Colts (-2.5) vs. Patriots
New England's defense is not the same team Bill Belichick coached.
It's a whole new take on a hapless unit that has no idea what it's doing against the pass, allowing the seventh-most yards per pass attempt.
Anthony Richardson has played better since returning to the starting lineup and should be able to use his legs effectively.
Cardinals (+3.5) vs. Vikings
Minnesota ranks No. 1 in adjusted defensive value above average (DVOA), so it makes sense to expect Kyler Murray and the Cardinals to struggle a bit.
But the Cardinals are a much more balanced unit.
According to DVOA, Arizona has the 10th best offensive line and PFF has the fourth best offensive line.
Arizona gives the Vikings everything they can handle and then some.
Titans (+6) vs. Commanders
Jaden Daniels is clearly not doing well and is not the same player who dominated this league early in the season.
The Titans are a team I've bet too much on this season, and I'll continue to bet on them in Week 13.
Tennessee will stop the run as usual – they have the fourth-best run defense.
Charger in FALCONS (-1)
A terrible matchup for my beloved Falcons.
The Chargers released Justin Herbert, who has scored rushing touchdowns in two of the past three games and is averaging 35.4 yards per game.
Atlanta's defense can't match that, allowing the fifth-most rushing yards to a quarterback per game.
The Chargers also have the seventh-best pass defense in yards per pass attempt allowed, which could cause a lot of problems for Kirk Cousins.
Jaguars (+3.5) vs. Texans
After the bye week, the Jaguars have had a chance to reflect on their lost season, which saw them finish last in the AFC South with a 2-9 record.
Trevor Lawrence is back and the Jags are pretty much competing with him in the lineup.
Aside from the embarrassing loss to Detroit, Jacksonville has done a great job recently, losing by one score and losing by close margins to the Packers, Eagles, Texans, and Vikings.
Injuries have been an issue, but the Jaguars are safe this week and may be able to pick up a win against a divisional opponent.
Panthers (+6) vs. Buccaneers
Bryce Young was silently pitching against the Chiefs' strong defense last week.
The Buccaneers currently have the league's 21st-ranked pass defense, according to DVOA.
Bucky Irving should have another explosive day at running back, but the Panthers are on a roll and Adam Thielen is playing a big role as the comfort blanket for the offense.
Rams (-2.5) vs. Saints
New Orleans is intriguing at home, but their pass defense is too bad to support.
Puka Nacua will cook this disappointing unit. They allowed 7.2 yards per pass attempt (sixth worst), and the departure of Marshon Lattimore only made things worse.
The Rams won this game thanks to an efficient passing offense surrounded by Nacua and Cooper Kupp.
Eagles (+3) vs. Ravens
A notable non-primetime matchup between Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson.
Both teams are capable of playing exceptional football, but we favor this team's better defense.
Philadelphia has by far the best coverage grade this year, according to PFF, and DVOA also likes the run defense, rating it ninth.
Bills (-7) vs. 49ers
Snow is expected to fall in Buffalo Sunday night, making conditions difficult.
Past 49ers teams would have been well-equipped for this game, but Christian McCaffrey looks like a shell of his former self and doesn't have the ferocious offensive power of the past.
Josh Allen could probably run over a defense that looks ripe without their most important defender, Nick Bosa.
Do you want to bet on the NFL?
MOn the day
Broncos (-5.5) vs. Browns
Jameis Winston can't continue to be on the run and won't be appearing on “Monday Night Football.”
According to DVOA, the Broncos have the sixth-best pass defense and fourth-best overall.
They are allowing the second fewest yards per pass attempt.
Winston reverted to his old turnover-prone ways at Mile High, and Bo Nix led Denver to another solid victory.
last week: 7-5
season: 76-90-1
