The Post's Erich Richter shares his picks and predictions for Week 16 of the NFL season..
Sunday
Buccaneers -4 vs. Cowboys
Don't give too much credit to the Cowboys' dismantling of the Panthers last week.
Tampa Bay has one of the best running backs in the NFL in Bucky Irving, and he looked surprisingly healthy last week.
Dallas is allowing 5.8 yards per play, second-worst in the NFL.
Tampa Bay Roll.
Falcons -8.5 vs. Giants
The Giants are just waiting for the season to end, but if Baltimore hadn't called off the game early in the fourth quarter, they could have lost to the Ravens by 50 points.
Kirk Cousins is out, otherwise I'd bet on the Giants covering.
Michael Penix Jr. is the right fit to support one of the league's best playmakers, who is still averaging 10th in yards per play (5.8) despite terrible quarterback play thus far. It shows.
Jets +3 vs. Rams
Bettors have been obsessed with the Jets all year long, expecting them to win the game.
Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers is coming off the best game of his Jets career and is looking to end a nightmarish season on a high.
Madden probably won't like these ratings, but the Jets won outright on MetLife.
Lions -6.5 vs. Bears
Detroit will have to outdo every team it faces going forward, but these games are certainly important.
The Lions use Jahmil Gibbs, who is capable enough to take over the primary running back role. A running back injury in a strong offense is hardly a reason to bet on the team.
Detroit's defense is battered by injuries and isn't great right now, but the Bears' defense is also fifth-worst in yards per play.
Since the Bears changed coaches, they have recorded the second-worst average yards per game (4.3 yards) in the league, behind the Giants.
Bengals -8.5 vs. Browns
If Jameis Winston were starting here, we would have more pause for a matchup against the Bengals.
However, Dorian Thompson-Robinson has thrown one touchdown and seven interceptions so far in the NFL.
Sure he can run, but the Bengals offense is the best in football.
This is a great spot for Cincinnati, which is very quietly trending toward a backdoor playoff spot against the Broncos next week.
The Browns offense will be corrupted even against a poor Bengals defense.
They allow just 4.4 yards per carry, 14th best in the NFL. That's an average number, but defensively it's the best of a bad unit.
Titans +3.5 vs. Colts
The Titans are 2-12 against the spread, but you can't tell by the book.
They have a solid defense, giving up the ball 29 times, the most in the NFL, while allowing opponents an average of just 5 yards per play this season.
Maybe Mason Rudolph can solve that.
Coach Brian Callahan isn't the only one wondering what Will Levis was “doing” this season, but the coach waited too long to bench Will Levis.
The Titans finally won.
Eagles -3.5 vs. Commanders
AJ Brown would be better off going to the Eagles, who are currently considered the best team in the NFC.
Jalen Hurts pitched well last week against the Steelers, and there is every reason to believe this week will be a run-first game.
Washington is sixth-worst in YPC allowed (4.8), but the Eagles have Saquon Barkley making them look stupid throughout this game.
Cardinals vs. Panthers -4.5
An undersized quarterback battle.
Kyler Murray will face Bryce Young in what could be an interesting matchup.
While the Cardinals seem to be on the decline, the Panthers seemed to be on the upswing until last week when they lost to the Cowboys as the favorites.
James Conner averages 4.5 YPC and Carolina makes a joke of the run with a league-worst 5.0 YPC.
Vikings -3 vs. Seahawks
Seattle is a difficult team to judge.
They beat the Cardinals twice and went on the road as underdogs once, but those wins don't seem to be that good anymore.
The Seahawks lost badly to the Giants again this year and definitely should have lost to the Jets.
Now, let's talk about the Vikings. The Vikings are 6th in overall DVOA, while the Seahawks are 21st.
Minnesota's defense is too good for the Seahawks' run game.
The Vikings have the second-best mark with just 3.9 YPC, while the Seahawks have averaged just 3.8 YPC since Week 7, the third-worst in that span.
Patriots, +14 vs. BILLS
I hate to bet on Patriots coach Jerrod Mayo, but this is usually a divisional game where both teams give each other a tough fight.
Last year, the Patriots defeated the Bills and lost to Buffalo by six points despite having Mac Jones at quarterback.
Drake Maye is definitely an upgrade, and the defense has improved a bit after a slump early in the season, gaining 5.4 yards per play over the past three games.
It's really about a coaching decision and not enough to bite the Bills at this price.
49ers vs. Dolphins +1
The Dolphins are cutting players in hopes of becoming a team that can make the playoffs – imagine that.
So why do they have an advantage against a team that has so much pride and all these healthy bodies?
San Francisco is not a good opponent for Tua Tagovailoa. Against man coverage (typically known as the coverage the Dolphins struggle with the most), they are the team in the NFL allowing the fewest yards per pass attempt.
Raiders -1 vs. Jaguars
Want to bet on the Jaguars' 32nd-ranked pass defense? Aidan O'Connell and Mac Jones are bad, but the Raiders have a better defense (5.3 yards per play vs. 6.1 allowed) and more weapons.
It's going to be a bad game, but we can't afford to play against the Jaguars.
Even if they lose the lead, there's no reason to believe they can maintain it.
Do you want to bet on the NFL?
Monday
Packers -14.5 vs. Saints
Spencer Rattler isn't bad, but both Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill are just disaster for a rookie quarterback on day three.
There's a reason Green Bay is one of the favorites to win the NFL championship, and it could be on display on Monday.
last week: 7-9.
season: 99-108-2.
