The Post's Eric Richter shares his picks and predictions for Week 4 of the NFL season.
Sunday
Panthers (+4.5) vs. Bengals: Andy Dalton breathed new life into a Panthers team that lost faith in Bryce Young. Dalton was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL last week, but he's facing a pathetic defense on his former team, the Bengals. There could be another shootout on Sunday. The Bengals won with a late field goal.
Jets (-7.5) vs. Broncos: Expect the home favorites to actually cover this week, starting with the Jets. Aaron Rodgers was humming along during last week's game against the Patriots, but he took a long 10-day break and is not traveling, flying across the country from Denver. For the Jets, it's a great place to select a rookie QB on the road.
Steelers (-2.5) vs. Colts: Will Anthony Richardson survive this game? The Steelers hit unbelievably hard. Simply put, Richardson can't throw the ball very well and takes too many big hits to be useful as a quarterback. The Colts are 16th in DVOA (Adjusted Defensive Value Above Average) while the Steelers are 6th, and the Steelers are also 4th in total defensive DVOA.
Vikings (+3) vs. Packers: Jordan Love is expected to return to the Packers this weekend, but Brian Flores' defense is ferocious. Love is a little rusty and probably not healthy and that doesn't sit well with Minnesota. We're going to bet the road dog on this divisional rivalry.
Texans (-6.5) vs. Jaguars: Usually the Jaguars are so bad that this is a spot to overreact to bet on Jacksonville. However, the Texans lost last week as well, which was another disappointing result. According to DVOA, Houston has the seventh-best defense in the NFL. This is a great spot for Houston, and there's no reason to believe in Jacksonville — it's still on the road and it's a short week.
Falcons (-2.5) vs. Saints: The Saints were so beat up that barring some bad coaching decisions and some unfortunate referee calls, the Falcons would have beaten the Chiefs. According to Pro Football Focus, the Saints' offensive line has fallen from the top of the NFL to 30th in the league. Alvin Kamara is questionable, adding to the uncertainty for the Big Easy staff.
Rams (+3) vs. BEARS: This week's coaching cutting edge despite injuries: Matt Eberflus faces Sean McVay. And then there's Matthew Stafford vs. Caleb Williams. Chicago's defense may be a good fit for Stafford, but Williams is not suited for this role as a championship contender. McVay plans to pit the Rams against an overrated Bears defense and an offense that ranks 32nd in DVOA. Hi.
Buccaneers (+1.5) vs. Eagles: Overreacting to a terrible performance as a big favorite. The Buccaneers are big underdogs, but bad favorites. Tampa Bay, which suffered a come-from-behind loss to Denver last week, is the favorite to win the championship with a recent record of 8 wins and 10 losses. Since last season, the Bucks are among the best in the league on the money line as underdogs at 7-7.
Cardinals (-3.5) vs. Commanders: Is Jaden Daniels that good already? Or is Cincinnati's defense really that bad? Either way, expect a gunfight here. According to Pro Football Focus and DVOA, the Commanders have the worst defense in the NFL. When the Cardinals gave it their all against the seemingly unstoppable Bills in Week 1, it was hard to accept that level of badness.
Patriots (+10.5) vs. 49ERS: It's a gift for the Patriots to have 10 days to prepare for the 49ers, but 10.5 days is a crazy number here. Jacoby Brissett is a solid enough starter to cover the spread and should keep San Francisco's offense at bay with his strong defense and run game.
Browns (-1.5) vs. Raiders: We are making business decisions here. Don't bet on Antonio Pierce for anything other than field goals. Cleveland isn't a great team, and we managed to fade them last weekend, but don't think for a second that the Browns will lose this game. These two teams are rated 30th and 31st in DVOA. I won't watch this game, but let's make money with it.
Chargers (+7) vs. Chiefs: Jim Harbaugh doesn't really need a star quarterback, but give him a star quarterback and he'll win the Super Bowl. This line implies that Justin Herbert (questionable) will not play. That's fine for us. They will use J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, who have the league's fourth-ranked defense (PFF), to put this opportunity within range.
Ravens (-2.5) vs. Bills: This is one of the best “Sunday Night Football” games we've seen in recent years. I consider Baltimore to be the more desperate team, but Buffalo has really stepped up after beating Jacksonville. Part of the handicap is that the Bills are on the road for a short period of time, but these two teams are arguably the top teams in the NFL. Buffalo ranks first in DVOA and Baltimore ranks fifth.
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Monday
Dolphins (-1.5) vs. Titans: Levi or Tyler Huntley? Huntley started this weekend and adds a nice running element to an offense that has been troublesome under coach Skyler Thompson. They have to win a game at some point, but they're the No. 32 rated team according to PFF, so Will Revis may have to wait a week to get a win. .
Seahawks (+3.5) vs. Lions: Given their talent, Detroit didn't look as dominant as we expected. This should have been Monday's aviation incident. Those two were top-ranked run defenses, with the Lions allowing just 3.6 yards per carry, according to PFF. Detroit isn't reliable, with Goff currently rated as the 24th best quarterback in the NFL and Geno Smith rated No. 6, according to PFF. I predict Seattle will win this shootout by a field goal.
Last week: 7-8.
Season: 19-25.
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Erich Richter is a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu but has a black belt in mixed martial arts gambling. During football season, he proved to be a huge moneymaker for the Post in the player prop market the past two seasons. Always betting on the long shot, the return on investment from 2022 onwards is 30.15%.
