The Post's Erich Richter shares his picks and predictions for Week 18 of the NFL season..
Sunday
49ers +4.5 vs. Cardinals
Even without Brock Purdy this week, the 49ers trailed the Lions by just 3.5 points at home and were +4.5 points heading into the game against the Cardinals.
How much value do you think Purdy is worth against the spread?
San Francisco played a very close game with one of the league's best offenses, but faces an awful Cardinals run defense that has allowed 5 yards per carry since Week 10.
San Francisco ranks second in yards allowed per play (6.3) and fifth in yards allowed per play (5.2) this season.
As Joshua Dobbs prepares for the final game of the season, there are no stats to suggest the 49ers are underdogs here.
Giants +3 to Eagles
Normally, the Giants would have trailed the Eagles by 14 points or more. Now, the Giants' “A Team” will be facing the Eagles' “C Team” who are 13-3, but the Eagles still have a lot of talent across the roster.
It appears backup QB Kenny Pickett will be the starter for Philadelphia's third-stringer Tanner McKee.
McKee looked great in his NFL debut, but Giants players are still trying to win games, for whatever it's worth.
I personally wouldn't bet, but I predict the Giants will win their second straight game as Brian Daboll insists on keeping his job.
Packers -10 vs. Bears
Chicago has allowed the fifth-fewest yards per play in the NFL over the past three weeks (4.7) and the lowest in the entire NFL this year (4.6).
Neither team is sitting their starters, which means the Packers offense, which ranks fifth best in average yards per play, will be fully operational.
Chicago's offense has reached an embarrassing level, sacking Caleb Williams 68 times, the most in the league.
Falcons -8.5 vs. Panthers
Michael Penix Jr. is more than just that, a bag of potato chips, but Bijan Robinson certainly is.
He ranks 10th in yards per carry, but the Panthers have an abysmal 6.1 yards per carry since Week 11, by far the worst.
Robinson and Tyler Allgaier gained plenty of runway as the Panthers struggled to hold down the fort.
Buccaneers -14 vs. Saints
Not only are you playing for the Saints, but most of the time you're playing as a reserve player for the Saints.
Alvin Kamara will be out as the Saints' running back, with Spencer Rattler starting at quarterback in place of the injured Derek Carr.
We know Tampa Bay needs this game, but the Saints have been terrible the last few weeks.
Two weeks ago, they lost a shutout to the Packers and scored just 10 points against the Raiders.
Cowboys +6.5 vs. Commanders
Still playing hard, just not playing well. Both teams should have starters, but the coaches rely heavily on Jaden Daniels and his legs, so I expect them to have a little easier time than usual in a game like this.
Daniels led Washington in rushing yards for three straight games (all wins), but took some nasty hits.
Broncos -11 vs. Chiefs
The Chiefs defeated the Chargers last year while starting as a backup, earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC and entering the double-bye week.
For now, Carson Wentz is expected to start for the Chiefs, but if you're betting on Kansas City, you should know Chris Oladokun's name.
He's a third stringer and will definitely take some time as the Chiefs sit almost their entire team.
Colts -5 vs. Jaguars
Pat McAfee wants this entire team to enter the transfer portal, but not before ruining the Colts' draft position.
Jacksonville ranks 26th in defensive adjusted average (DVOA) and 32nd in defensive rating this season.
The Colts should easily win this game, unless their coach completely quits.
Texans +1.5 vs. Titans
I project the Titans to go 2-15 against the spread, which is the worst in the NFL since at least 2003, the most recent data available.
Houston has played poorly in recent weeks, but the Titans' passing offense is bad enough (22nd in DVOA) that they should be able to throw enough to win.
Houston still has the No. 2 defense, according to DVOA.
This betting line makes no sense unless Vegas has inside information that the Texans are not serious about this game.
Dolphins vs. JETS -1
According to DVOA, the Jets have been unable to stop their momentum and are ranked 24th vs.
Between Devon Ashen and Raheem Mostert, there's no reason this game will be particularly close considering even Jets players say some players are mentally checked.
This team has no pride
Bills -3 vs. Patriots
New England mysteriously announced that Drake Maye is questionable to start. I think they saw everything they needed this year, a future star.
in season. Getty Images
Meanwhile, Buffalo will play most of its reserves, with Josh Allen taking Mitch Trubisky's seat.
Charger -4.5 from Raider
This line suggests the Chargers will play most of their starting pitching, and this is the only case to bet on the Chargers here. The Raiders are rated 27th in DVOA and the Chargers are rated 9th.
If you look on the sidelines, you'll see that there's a huge mismatch between Jim Harbaugh and Antonio Pierce.
Be very wary of reporting injuries here. But you have to anticipate this. Many Chargers players, including J.K. Dobbins, have incentive to hit this week.
Assuming the starters play a normal snap count, we're like the Chargers.
Do you want to bet on the NFL?
Seahawks -6.5 vs. RAMS
Geno Smith has a $2 million bonus if the Seahawks win 10 games this season, so I know he wants this.
The Rams are focused on almost all of their offense heading into the playoffs, while the Seahawks are missing out on a playoff spot.
They should be able to grab an easy victory here.
Vikings +3 to Lions
Everyone will be betting on this game as a showdown between the two best in the league in a potential NFC Championship preview.
The Vikings are a healthy team in this region with a solid defense.
For stats nerds, the way to beat Sam Darnold is with a good zone coverage scheme. He has the league's third-best QB rating against man coverage (124.3) and 20th against zone (93.7).
Detroit primarily plays in man coverage (and performs second-best with a success rate of 54.1 percent), but their zone coverage is terrible (fifth-worst with a success rate of 74.7 percent).
Cheer on the Vikings with confidence on “Sunday Night Football.”
last week:4-7
season:109-121-3.
