UFC 306 will be broadcast live from The Sphere in Las Vegas on Saturday as one of the biggest fight cards of the year.
The promotion plans to produce movie packages for each main card bout, making this a spectacular show unlike any other.
Saturday is Mexican Independence Day and the main event is Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili.
While O'Malley himself is not Mexican, his wife and daughter are both Mexican, so this is a roundabout way of relating to his Mexican heritage.
However, most of the card is made up of Mexican fighters, which should make for some very entertaining bouts from start to finish.
The entire prelim card will air on the ESPN NEWS Network beginning at 7:30 PM ET, followed by pay-per-view coverage at 10 PM ET.
UFC 306 Predictions
Sean O'Malley (-140) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (+118)
It's fair to say that UFC really wants and needs “The Sugar Show” to continue beyond this big fight card.
The problem is, O'Malley isn't the kind of takedown defender who can truly compete on the mat with Merab Dvalishvili.
But the same can be said about Dvalishvili's inability to compete with O'Malley as a striker.
O'Malley's grappling is actually underrated here and Dvalishvili's chin is a bit suspect.
And yet, the wrong fighter has the advantage here.
Dvalishvili is a cardio machine with plenty of takedown prowess and owns the most takedowns per 15 minutes in UFC history (6.43 takedowns per 15 minutes).
He comes into this fight in an elite camp and has the advantage thanks to former champion Aljamain Sterling, who executed a fearsome game plan in this bout.
Sterling and coach Matt Serra should be able to put a more legitimate game plan in front of their players and take the path of least resistance to win the title.
Pick: Dvalishvili ML (+118, Caesars)
Alexa Grasso (-140) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (+118)
The once-dominant champion has had weaknesses that have been showing for years, and they finally came to light in her loss to Alexa Grosso, who was a -600 favorite to win in 2023.
Shevchenko then faced Grosso in a rematch for the bantamweight title, which ended in a draw.
It's clear that Shevchenko is declining physically, and while she was once unstoppable in the stands, her defensive prowess has frankly shown signs of weakness in recent fights.
Shevchenko will need to wrestle her way to a victory after having had ample control time in the first two bouts of this trilogy.
That being said, it's hard to imagine this fight ending in anything other than a decision.
Grosso and Shevchenko know each other better than anyone, having fought each other in two lengthy bouts over the past few years.
choose: The fight will continue to the end (-188, Fanatics)
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UFC 306 full card picks (main card in bold)
- Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili: Dvalishvili ML (+118, Caesars)
- Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko: The match will go all the way to the end (-188, Fanatics)
- Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopez: Lopez wins by KO/TKO (+310, FanDuel)
- Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Rybovic: Zellhuber Moneyline (-225, Bet365):
- Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ordo Osborne: The fight will go all the way to the end (+140, Caesars)
- Irene Aldana vs. Norma Dumont: Aldana by decision (+140, FanDuel)
- Manuel Torres vs. Ignacio Bajamondez: Bajamondez by decision (+600, BetMGM)
- Yazmin Jauregui vs. Ketlen Souza: Pass
- Edgar Chailes vs. Joshua Vann: Chailes wins by submission (+900, ESPN BET)
- Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Aori Kiren: Rosas via submission (-150, BetRivers)
