California Governor Gavin Newsom is facing lackluster approval ratings as he gears up to leave office and possibly pursue a presidential run. A recent poll suggests there may be challenges ahead for the Democratic leader’s national aspirations.
The survey, conducted with 625 registered voters in California, found that 45% approved of Newsom’s job performance, while 46% disapproved, according to a poll released by NBCUniversal Local and Telemundo Station Group.
This poll, carried out between September 21 and 24, highlights a significant partisan divide: around 93% of Republicans deemed his performance unsatisfactory, with a majority of Independents—56%—also agreeing that Newsom is not meeting expectations.
Political consultant Matt Rexroad observed that Newsom’s biggest challenge might be the overall negative perception he holds among voters outside the major urban areas like Los Angeles and the Bay Area. In Northern California, where it’s more rural and excludes Sacramento, only 28% of voters expressed approval of his performance, while 60% were disapproving.
“This doesn’t directly hinder his presidential ambitions, but it indicates a struggle in connecting with rural voters,” Rexroad noted.
He added that voters in key primary states such as Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina may not resonate with a candidate who emphasizes their California roots, especially from places like San Francisco or Marin County.
Rexroad pointed to a recent advertisement from the Republican Governors Association that aims to link a Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Kansas to California, showcasing the polarizing image of the state on the national stage.
The poll also revealed notable gender differences in approval, with most men disapproving of Newsom’s performance, while a majority of women viewed it positively. When looking at racial demographics, the majority of white voters disapproved, whereas Hispanic and Asian voters tended to have a favorable opinion.
While 74% of Democrats approved of Newsom, this may not be sufficient for a national campaign, especially in a divided political climate, according to Morris Levy, a political science professor at USC.
“To sum it up, Democrats largely back Newsom, but Republicans are mostly against him,” Levy explained. “Some Democrats are even somewhat indifferent or unhappy with his leadership, which could pose a problem if he aims for the nomination.”
Levy pointed out that partisanship plays a significant role in these sentiments, noting that the approval ratings for Donald Trump mirror those of Newsom.
The poll revealed that 66% of California Democrats would likely vote for Newsom as their presidential nominee, while only 15% indicated they wouldn’t. However, Levy cautioned that this question didn’t compare him against other potential candidates.
Although Newsom’s approval ratings remained consistent across various age groups, Levy mentioned that this poll might not fully capture the dynamics if Newsom decides to run for president.
“Newsom has been positioning himself as a mainstream Democrat—challenging Trump while also attempting to appeal to the center on topics like transgender athletes in women’s sports,” Levy observed. “This could overshadow the opposition he or Vice President Harris might face from a younger base that has shifted significantly to the left on economic matters and other issues.”
Recently, the governor has visited early primary states like Michigan and South Carolina to gauge his appeal. He’s also announced some policy positions that appear to align more closely with a progressive base. For instance, he endorsed a national billionaire tax earlier this year, despite having opposed a similar measure in California.
The Post reached out to Newsom’s office for a response regarding the poll.
