California Governor Gavin Newsom is generating buzz as a potential Democratic contender for the 2028 presidential race. However, the latest party data points to a disconnect between the media excitement and his actual influence among voters.
In a recent analysis, it was noted that Newsom’s profile has risen due to his confrontations with former President Trump, savvy social media use, and strategic changes to California’s congressional districts. His rising status is likened to past Democratic figures like Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama, who were seen as fresh outsiders challenging the established order while still gaining the trust of party stalwarts, partly due to Newsom’s connections with prominent Democrats like Bill Clinton and Nancy Pelosi.
Moreover, Newsom characterizes himself as a “stubborn pragmatist,” unwilling to fit into specific ideological boxes. He aims to unite the party across a broad ideological spectrum, from more moderate to progressive positions.
But despite the increasing attention, internal studies reveal a gap between how Newsom is perceived and his effectiveness as a national spokesperson. Recent Democratic research has indicated that, surprisingly, the most impactful advocacy for Proposition 50—an initiative he was expected to champion—did not come from him or even Barack Obama, but from Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
The research conducted by Future Forward evaluated various ads and found that Ocasio-Cortez’s promotional message regarding the new congressional district map was the most effective, boosting support by over 5 percentage points. Her direct messaging, including a version in Spanish, resonated by connecting the issue of redistricting to common concerns such as health care and personal rights.
On November 4, California voters approved Proposition 50, allowing the legislature to overhaul congressional districts without needing an independent commission. This change could potentially give Democrats up to five additional seats in the U.S. House.
In response, the California Republican Party has filed a federal lawsuit against Proposition 50, claiming it violates the 14th and 15th Amendments by improperly gerrymandering districts. The suit is led by state Rep. David Tangipa along with other party officials and several California voters. The argument centers on allegations that the new district map favors certain racial groups, which, according to the lawsuit, contradicts the principles of equal protection under the law. Nevertheless, Newsom’s office believes the lawsuit will not succeed.
Ocasio-Cortez’s effective campaign efforts have sparked speculation about her political future. Reports suggest that her team is framing her as a possible candidate for either president or senator in 2028. In a recent poll, she garnered 8% support among Democratic voters, placing third behind Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom, indicating she is a contender to watch. Earlier this year, she narrowly trailed Vice President J.D. Vance in a national matchup, while Newsom likewise held a competitive standing against Vance based on initial polling outcomes.
