Former President Trump maintains a slight lead over Vice President Harris in Georgia, but the race remains close in North Carolina. Two opinion polls released Monday from Quinnipiac University.
Trump leads Harris among Georgia voters by four points (49 percent to 45 percent), while independent candidate Cornel West and third-party candidate Claudia de la Cruz each have 1 percent support.
Meanwhile, in North Carolina, Harris leads Trump among likely voters by three points (49 percent to 46 percent), with Green Party candidate Jill Stein receiving 1 percent support, making Harris' three-point lead within the margin of error and statistically insignificant.
In hypothetical two-way races in both states, the results are close enough that it's hard to predict: In Georgia, Harris would gain one point, cutting Trump's lead to three points, 49 percent to 46 percent; in North Carolina, both candidates would gain one point, giving Harris a similar three-point lead.
“North Carolina and Georgia hold a combined 32 electoral votes and are important in the path to the presidential election, but neither state has a clear advantage,” Tim Malloy, a polling analyst at Quinnipiac University, said in a press release.
Trump maintains equal support in both states, with 93% of Republicans in Georgia and 94% of Republicans in North Carolina supporting him.
Meanwhile, in North Carolina, Harris has unified support for the Democratic Party (99%), but support is clearly divided among independents in the state, with Trump at 47% and Harris at 42%.
Harris has 94 percent support in Georgia, but independents are split, with 46 percent backing each candidate.
This is the first time Quinnipiac has surveyed Georgia and North Carolina voters during the 2024 election cycle, so results cannot be compared to previous years.
The Hill/Decision Desk average of polls in Georgia has Trump and Harris tied at 48.4 percent. In North Carolina, the average of polls has Trump ahead by 0.4 percentage points, at 48.4 percent to Harris's 48 percent.
Asked to comment on these polls, Trump campaign spokesman Steven Chung referred The Hill to election prognosticator Nate Silver's latest projections, which give Trump a 64.4% chance of winning the election, a 76% chance of winning North Carolina and a 69% chance of winning Georgia.
The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted Sept. 4-8, 2024, among 940 North Carolina voters and 969 Georgia voters. Both surveys have a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.
Updated at 7:44 p.m.
