The EU climate monitor reported on Thursday that heat levels have reached an unprecedented point, raising concerns about the speed of global warming. In April, temperatures approached notable highs.
While it was anticipated that this heat wave would diminish as the El Niño phenomenon from the previous year faded, temperatures have remained persistently near record levels into this year.
“Now that 2025 has arrived, we should be able to return to normal. Instead, we find ourselves still on this accelerated path of warming,” remarked Johann Lockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
“It appears we’re somewhat stuck. Although the reasons for this are not entirely clear, it’s quite concerning,” he told AFP.
The latest report from Copernicus Climate Change Services indicated that April was the second hottest month in their records, which draw on extensive data collected via satellites, ships, aircraft, and weather stations.
In fact, out of the last 22 months, only one has recorded temperatures below 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Exceeding this limit could lead to significant and long-lasting changes in climate and the environment, contrary to the limits set by the Paris Agreement.
Missed the target
Many scientists now believe that meeting this target may become impossible and could soon be surpassed.
A large-scale study involving numerous climate scientists—yet to be peer-reviewed—recently found that global warming hit 1.36°C in 2024.
Copernicus estimates the current figure as 1.39°C, predicting it could reach 1.5°C by mid-2029, based on warming trends observed over the last 30 years.
“That means we’re just four years away from that reality. The truth is we are already over the 1.5-degree mark,” stated Samantha Burgess from the Medium-Distance Weather Prediction Center, which operates Copernicus.
“The key point is to focus on 1.51 rather than just 1.5,” a climate scientist emphasized to AFP.
Julianne Katia, a climate scientist at CNRS at the French Institute of Research, indicated that the 1.5°C threshold will likely be breached before 2030, though that shouldn’t lead to despair.
“While the statistics we’re seeing are astounding, the rates of warming are indeed high. They accumulate quickly,” she explained to AFP.
“Even so, we shouldn’t be resigned to this fate.”
“Exceptional”
Experts agree that the combustion of fossil fuels is the main driver of long-term global warming, resulting in more frequent and intense extreme weather events.
However, there is still some uncertainty regarding other factors contributing to this prolonged heat wave.
It’s believed that global cloud formations, air pollution, and shifts in the Earth’s capacity to store carbon in natural environments like forests and oceans also play a role in the rising temperatures.
Last year, 2023 was marked as the hottest on record, followed by 2024, with 2025 being the third hottest.
“The last two years have been… exceptional,” Burgess commented.
She noted, “Although we are still within the range we predicted we might reach, we’re at the higher end of that spectrum.”
“The pace of warming is increasing, but I’m uncertain about how that will hold in the long term,” she added, emphasizing the necessity for more data.
The Copernicus record goes back to 1940, but other climate data sources like ice cores, tree rings, and coral skeletons enable scientists to use historical evidence to strengthen their conclusions.
Scientists believe that the current period may be the warmest the planet has experienced in the past 125,000 years.
