The sound of the Louisville Slugger’s ash bat connecting with a rawhide baseball woven in Costa Rica will soon be echoing in ballparks across North America.
A calm-spoken announcer rushes forward from his seat in the press box, three steps above home plate. The announcer squints her eyes to see if the ball will snag just inside the foul pole, hundreds of feet away down the right field line.
“Go! Go! Go!” he chirps as the ball hugs Paul, keeping him level-headed. The ball then bounces wildly around the many seats, concrete, and fumbling fans as if triggered by the paddles of an arcade pinball machine.
Perhaps the House could hire some baseball announcers here on Capitol Hill.
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There is a good chance that the Republican House majority will “move on, move on.” Had disappeared is another question. However, a scenario in which Democrats control the House majority is emerging as a distinct possibility.
The House majority has never reversed mid-session.
But if that were to happen, the 118th Congress would be ripe for that possibility.
House Republicans are facing chaos in conference. Members who were scheduled to retire in January next year are now resigning from the National Diet Building early. The situation in the House of Representatives is becoming increasingly difficult as there is a new move to usurp the Speaker’s position. FOX has been told that other Republicans are also looking to leave as soon as possible. Big paydays in the private sector could tempt some members to cash in their voting cards early.
First, let’s talk about the length of the “parliament”.
Congress is called “Congress” because the members of the House of Representatives and Senators meet in Washington. The word “congress” means “to gather together.” This will be the 118th time that members of Congress have come to the Capitol since the first Congress began at New York City’s Federal Hall in 1789. Voters elected the House of Representatives and about one-third of all senators for the current 118th Congress, which will be held in November 2022. Each “parliament” begins at noon ET on January 3rd and runs until 11:59 a.m. ET on January 3rd two years later. Therefore, the 118th Congress opened on January 3, 2023. This Congress expires in the early morning hours of January 3 next year. As a result, the terms of office for members of the House of Representatives, which began last year, will all expire in January next year. The members elected this November will serve in the 119th Congress, which begins on January 3 next year.
House Republicans believed they could win a 50-seat majority in January 2023. They won a majority in the House of Representatives, but by only a few seats. The slim majority then hesitated for five days, but ultimately elected former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to lead the party.
The vicious chairman’s campaign foreshadowed what was to come.
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McCarthy was done by October. The House of Representatives fought for more than three weeks to elect House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) to succeed Mr. McCarthy. Now, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) is fed up with Johnson. She authored a resolution to remove the Louisiana Republican from office for his “betrayal” of House Republicans on the latest spending bill. The House ultimately passed the bill with 185 Democratic votes, but only 101 Republicans. Mr. Johnson also violated the Republican Party’s internal rules, which give members three full days to read the bill before voting.
The text of the bill was released just before 3 a.m. ET last Thursday. The House finished voting on the bill at 11:45 a.m. last Friday.
Before the vote, Prime Minister Boris Johnson suggested he might not give MPs the three days they need to consider the bill.
“There’s nothing sacred about 72 hours. We want MPs to consider bills thoroughly before they vote on them. We’re a party that believes in that principle, no matter how much time passes. We’re trying to keep that crunch,” Johnson said as he raced through Statuary Hall in the Capitol.
Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene (left) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (right). (Getty Images)
Still, Johnson waived that rule to allow the House of Commons to approve the bill before the looming deadline for a government shutdown.
Mr Johnson’s maneuver has infuriated the right. But other Republicans remained unmoved. Rep. Greg Murphy, R-N.C., wants the rule waived, adding that the House should not allocate votes “by time.” Murphy was ready to vote immediately.
“What is this? A test?” Murphy asked. “Please read it faster.”
But Mr. Green broke with Mr. Johnson. She was preparing to show the Speaker the door after the House approved the spending measure.
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“I don’t want to cause any distress to our session and cause chaos in the House,” Greene said. “But I would like to say that the clock has started. It is time for our conference to choose a new chair.”
But Green may not even get a chance to corner Johnson. The possibility that the House of Representatives will transfer power to the Democratic Party by 11:59 a.m. on January 3 next year cannot be ruled out. In other words, this meeting.
It’s about mathematics.
Former Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) resigned last Friday. Mr. Buck knocked on the door of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas after he refused to vote to impeach him. Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) also declined to impeach Mayorkas. Mr Gallagher was originally scheduled to stay until January. But now the Wisconsin Republican is leaving the party on April 19th. That comes just after the date that mandates a special election in Wisconsin. But Mr Gallagher will check out in mid-April, so the seat will remain vacant until after the election.
After Bax’s resignation, the House of Commons will have the following breakdown: 431 members. 218 Republicans. The Democratic Party has 213 members. There is room for about 5 seats. But Republicans can only lose two votes on a given issue without support from the other side. After Gallagher’s resignation, the number of members will drop to 430, with 217 Republicans and 213 Democrats. That’s a difference of four seats. But in that case, Republicans would only lose one vote. By rules, a tie vote loses in the House.
And things get even murkier for Republicans.
A special election to replace former New York Congressman Brian Higgins, who also retired early, will be held in Western New York in late April. Democrats are expected to hold the seat. So for our purposes, we score this as a net Democratic pickup. This means that the number of members of the House of Representatives will be 431. However, there were 216 Republicans and 214 Democrats.
Republicans may have some breathing room after a May 21 special election runoff in California to decide Mr. McCarthy’s successor. That seat will likely go to Republicans.
But FOX has been told that other Republicans are also fed up and may resign before the end of Congress. Some people are just outraged. Some don’t want to be here for the presidential election and face being bombarded with questions from reporters on the floor about former President Trump’s latest comments. Some of us have experienced it with colleagues.
The Senate switched control from Republicans to Democrats midway through the 107th Congress in 2001. In fact, there was one strange anomaly in the Senate in the 1950s. At one point, Democrats won more seats than Republicans, but they remained in the minority. However, the House of Representatives has never changed hands mid-session.
“House Republicans need to be concerned about maintaining their majority,” said Darrell West of the Brookings Institution. “That would be highly unusual. I mean, that wouldn’t happen. But it shows the level of dysfunction, the divisions within the Republican House caucus.”
That’s why House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) characterized House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) last week as a “leader of Congress.”
“His title may not be Speaker of the House,” Aguilar said. “But he has the votes. He is trusted by a significant portion of the membership.”
But what happens if a few more Republicans resign?As it is, Jeffries can become Speaker, before it’s all over.
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I hear the sound of a bat coming from somewhere. Will the Republican majority continue to disappear?
Unpack the binoculars. Track the flight of the ball. And see what happens in the coming months.
