Gold stalls intraday recovery as traders await US NFP report for Fed rate cut cues – FXStreet

• Gold prices have been steadily recovering from Friday's lows in more than a week.
• Softer risk tone, geopolitical risks and trade war concerns are benefiting safe-haven commodities.
• We are betting on a non-dovish Fed cap to move higher on XAU/USD ahead of the important US NFP report.

Gold prices (XAU/USD) have struggled to capitalize on a strong intraday rebound from Friday's 1.5-week low, but managed to sustain modest gains through early European trading. are. Treasury yields remain subdued on expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower borrowing costs in December. This keeps the US dollar (USD) near multi-week lows and acts as a tailwind for the low-yielding yellow metal.

Separately, a slight deterioration in global risk sentiment, geopolitical tensions and concerns over trade wars were also found to be other factors supporting safe-haven gold prices. That said, hopes that the Fed will become less dovish, supported by expectations that US President-elect Donald Trump's policies will boost inflation, are holding back further gains in XAU/USD. Traders also appear reluctant to bet on anything positive ahead of the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

Gold price traders wait for Fed rate cut before betting on direction

• Recent statements by several influential FOMC members, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday, suggested the US central bank may pause its rate cutting cycle.
• This will send low-yielding gold prices to their lowest in more than a week on Friday, but a variety of factors are providing some support to bullion and helping to limit further declines.
• Russia has shown no signs of fatigue in its nearly two-year conflict with Ukraine, pummeling the country's east over the past week with long-range weapons and sustained ground attacks.
• Concerns about US President-elect Donald Trump's trade tariffs and their impact on the global economic outlook have dampened investor appetite for riskier assets, supporting safe-haven XAU/USD.
• Traders are pricing in a 70% chance that the Fed will cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points at its December meeting, and a 30% chance that it will halt policy, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
• Expectations for a rate cut remain largely stable after the U.S. Department of Labor (DoL) reported on Thursday that new jobless claims rose to 224,000 for the week ending November 29, up from 215,000 the previous week. did.
• Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are hovering near their lowest levels since Oct. 22, pushing the U.S. dollar near multi-week lows, providing further support for precious metals.
• Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of the U.S. Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report, which could provide hints about the Fed's rate cut path and determine the near-term trajectory of the U.S. dollar and commodities. There is sex.

Short-term technical settings for gold prices appear to be tilted in favor of the bears

From a technical perspective, an intraday breakdown below the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and near-term trading range support around $2,633-$2,632 are considered important triggers for bearish traders. Ta. However, the rapid recovery that follows requires some caution before bracing for further losses. On the other hand, further upside is likely to encounter resistance near $2,649 ahead of the $2,655 supply zone. Follow-through buying above last Friday's swing high near $2,666 will shift the bias to the bulls and allow gold prices to regain the $2,700 level.

Conversely, the Asian session lows around $2,614-$2,613 now appear to be acting as strong near-term support ahead of the $2,605-$2,600 area. This is followed by the 100-day SMA, which is currently near the $2,583 zone, below which gold could fall to November's monthly swing lows, or around $2,537 to $2,536. The downward trajectory could extend further and eventually take XAU/USD to the psychological mark of $2,500.