Matt Painter and Purdue have made five Sweet 16s in the past seven years.
Painter has led the Boilermakers to seven Sweet 16s since taking over in 2006.
However, Painter’s team is 1-5 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) this round.
Mark Few is thriving in Spokane as well.
This is the Bulldogs’ seventh straight Sweet 16 since 2000 and 11th overall. However, the Fuze Zags are 5-5 SU and 5-4-1 ATS this round.
I don’t know if Gonzaga University has the firepower to overtake Zach Eady and others, but I think the Bulldogs can get close to it.
Gonzaga vs. Purdue odds
| team | spread | money line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| gonzaga | +5.5 (-114) | +180 | o154.5 (-115) |
| Purdue | -5.5 (-106) | -220 | u154.5 (-105) |
Gonzaga vs. Purdue Prediction
(7:39 p.m. ET, TBS)
Other than a loss to St. Mary’s in the WCC Tournament (the Bulldogs made 2 of 3 (18%)), the Zags have been on a tear.
The average for the past two months is about 1.3 PPP. Ryan Nembhard vs. Graham Ike ball screens are impossible to stop, and Ike is one of the best post-up creators in the country. Ben Gregg’s shooting, spacing and ball movement have made him a potential All-American in the big four leagues. The Bulldogs still have an overwhelming advantage in transition and rim runs.
They are arguably the best offensive line left in the tournament.
Although Purdue boasts a good inside defense, the Boilermakers are vulnerable in ball screen coverage, ranking near the national average with an allowed PPP of 0.78.
Lance Jones and Fletcher Royer are vulnerable to pick-and-roll initiators, and Eadie can be torn apart when forced to defend in space or out of position.
I can’t imagine Nolan Hickman, Nevard Ike, or Greg not exploiting that weakness.
In a head-to-head matchup with Purdue this year, Gonzaga tried to complete 35 sets with a ball screen while losing by 10 points at the Maui Invitational.
However, the Bulldogs’ offense was skewed by an abysmal shooting performance, hitting just 6-of-32 (19%) from 3-point range.
Gonzaga could have kept it close or used a more typical shooting split to win outright.
And while the Zags have certainly improved offensively since that performance with the development of ball screens and Gregg’s breakout, the Bulldogs are even better defensively.
I was very impressed with Gonzaga’s defense in the second half of the season.
Behind Ike, the Bulldogs had the nation’s 10th-best two-point defense (44%) and seventh-best post-up defense (.66 PPP).
Plus, Anton Watson is a one-man wrecking ball that blows everything away as a ball-screen defender at the point of attack.
The Bulldogs are allowing just 28 paint points per game on 32% shooting.
This all matters against Purdue. Purdue will run its entire offense around Eadie at the rim, using the gravity of the National Player of the Year to expand the potential of perimeter shooters while posting up at the highest rate in the nation.
There is one big caveat. That’s a free throw.
The Bulldogs have zero depth and run a short seven-man rotation while ranking 342nd in the nation in bench minutes. The Bulldogs are in trouble when they get into some dirty trouble trying to hack Edie.
However, they were better at not fouling, using a more passive drop coverage scheme to force them to create mid-range on-ball while defending their inside scorers one-on-one.
Do you want to bet on March Madness 2024?
Gonzaga ranks 20th in the nation in free throw percentage.
It might be impossible not to foul Eadie, and if the Bulldogs don’t like it with a foul, I’ll have to flip and move on.
But the Zags are deep red and have a two-way schematic advantage to compete with Purdue for 40 minutes.
I believe the Bulldogs can be held within five points.
Gonzaga vs. Purdue picks
Gonzaga +5.5 (-114, FanDuel) | Play to +5
