Bostick’s Patience
A lot of economic data was released to the world on Thursday, most of which confirms yesterday’s Breitbart Business Digest Beige Book analysis.
Applying for unemployment insurance it was flat 212,000, again in line with forecasters’ predictions. This number is pretty low, especially for those looking for an excuse for the Fed to cut rates. As I said earlier this week, there is no evidence that a rate cut is coming any time soon, and the strength of the labor market (on the back of rising inflation) is the biggest indicator of that.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic echoed This sentiment was echoed in his remarks today at an event in Florida. As long as the labor market remains strong, No cut will come. If you’re a Biden fan or a member of the establishment media, you might interpret Bostic’s sentiment as an intention to cut jobs if the job market slows. But again, there is no evidence that this is happening.
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Rafael Bostic speaks in an interview with Bloomberg TV in Atlanta, Georgia, November 3, 2023. (Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
“It’s easy to hold back“I think things will be very slow this year and we won’t be in a position to lower rates toward the end of the year,” Bostic said.
accurately.
I can’t see the cool off
next, Index of leading economic indicators fell It was 0.3% in March, the Conference Board said Thursday. The Leading Index uses 10 indicators to determine whether we should expect the economy to improve or worsen. The 0.3% decline was worse than the 0.1% expected in a poll of economists. wall street journalbut more importantly, it marked a reversal from February, when the index rose for the first time in two years.
Considering that, labor market Although the economy is not cooling down and the economy is expanding at a relatively fast pace, there is no sign that inflation is going to subside (recent data shows it is currently rising), so interest rates may soon rise. It is unlikely that it will go down.
Employment in factories weakens
of Philadelphia Fed Factory Gauge In April, the index rose 15.5%, well above expectations of 2.5% and soared to its highest level in two years. The data shows the Mid-Atlantic region’s manufacturing industry expanded by the most in two years, driven by strong new orders and shipments of finished goods.But as is often the case with Bidennomics, even this good news is bad news Due to upward pressure on inflation.
So consider this another indicator that the shift towards lower interest rates is not happening.
Interestingly, factory employment “Manufacturing jobs have seen little growth over the past year, with factories averaging just 2,000 new jobs per month over the period, as measured by the Labor Department, the worst-performing industry in the private sector.” and Reuters report.
If this trend holds, it is almost certain Trump campaign talking points. If you’re just curious, listen to his lifelong claim that Biden is the best politician for working and middle-class workers. completely fraudulent.
Home buyers feel pressured
Average rate of immovable popularity 30 year fixed mortgage Rose The rate of increase was 7.5%, the highest level since November last year. Despite interest rates being so high, the number of mortgage applications rose 5% last week, a sign that some homebuyers are giving up hope that rates will fall soon. Still, demand is significantly down compared to this time last year.
Inventories have increased as well, but are at historically very low levels and competition is increasing. Squeeze out many prospective buyers.
