Effects of Government Shutdown on Economic Reports

Hedge fund manager Jonathan Honig from Capitalist Pig recently discussed the ongoing impact of inflation on American finances and highlighted some unique stock options on Varney & Company.

The current government shutdown, one of the longest on record, has disrupted the release of crucial economic data, notably the consumer price index (CPI) for October, initially set for Thursday. This delay has drawn attention to other key metrics monitored by the Federal Reserve.

Although the Labor Department was supposed to publish the October CPI, that report is now postponed, and there’s uncertainty surrounding its new release date. While official CPI data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is absent, the Cleveland Fed has introduced “nowcasts” that offer estimates of inflation levels for both the CPI and the Fed’s preferred index—Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE).

As of this Wednesday, the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast predicted a 0.18% monthly increase in CPI for October, while the core CPI, which excludes the often volatile food and energy sectors, was projected to rise by 0.25% for the same period.

Delayed October Jobs Report Due to Government Shutdown: What’s Next?

In terms of annual comparisons, the CPI for October is estimated to have increased by 2.96%, with the core CPI rising by 2.99%, per the Cleveland Fed’s projections. After peaking at a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022, inflation has been on a downward trend but has recently ticked up again following a low of 2.3% in April 2025, remaining significantly above the Fed’s 2% target.

The last official CPI figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated a yearly increase of 3% for both overall and core CPI as of September. This release occurred amid the ongoing government shutdown, during which some BLS employees were temporarily called back to work to help with the report, especially since it factors into the annual Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA).

There’s lingering uncertainty around when, or even if, the Bureau will publish the October CPI and employment numbers for September and October, all impacted by the shutdown.

Consumer Sentiment Declines Amid Extended Shutdown

A recent memo from JPMorgan indicated that data collection for both the October employment and CPI reports did not take place. The report noted that the October CPI might not be released due to a lack of data, or it could be presented based on judgment calls. It’s conceivable that the September jobs report could come out within a week after the shutdown ends, while the October figures might be released alongside November’s.

White House press secretary Caroline Levitt voiced concerns, noted the difficulty the shutdown posed for economists, investors, and Fed policymakers, citing it as a significant data deficit. She expressed that this situation might lead to lasting harm to the federal statistical system, potentially hindering the release of vital economic reports.

On Wednesday, President Donald Trump signed a bill to end the 43-day shutdown, passing funding to keep the government operational until January 30th.