Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia are generally expected to secure victories in their gubernatorial races. However, the contests seem more competitive than many analysts had anticipated. Here’s what’s notable:
Mikie Sherrill, a congresswoman with a varied background as a naval officer and prosecutor, is thought to have the upper hand against Jack Ciattarelli, a former congressman who has already lost two campaigns. From my experiences covering New Jersey news, it’s striking how solidly Democratic the state feels right now.
Sherrill faces a challenge, though—outgoing Governor Phil Murphy has become quite unpopular, and typically, voters don’t reward parties when they feel dissatisfied with the current leadership.
Then there’s the Trump factor, which tends to overshadow Tuesday’s race. Ciattarelli once referred to Trump as a “charlatan” back in 2015, but they’ve moved past that now and are on friendly terms. Interestingly, he had voted against legalizing same-sex marriage in 2012 but later changed his views.
Sherrill is trying to capitalize on Trump’s unpopularity, knowing that Ciattarelli’s failure to distance himself from Trump’s agenda might backfire. Moreover, Trump’s decision to cancel a significant tunnel project between New Jersey and New York has also angered many commuters in North Jersey.
Given the recent federal issues, like the government shutdown and cuts to SNAP benefits, Sherrill could face quite the uphill battle. Yet, Ciattarelli is still engaging with minority communities, which adds complexity to his campaign.
In Virginia, Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, typically seen as having an edge against Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle Sears, finds herself in a tricky situation. Despite her background with the CIA, Trump’s disapproval could hinder her. She clearly seemed to falter when showing support for someone like Jay Jones, a candidate for attorney general with a controversial past—his texting about violence was in poor taste, to say the least.
Many in the media largely let Spanberger off the hook initially but Earl Sears is heavily focusing his campaign on those contentious issues while challenging Traditions in women’s sports.
Spanberger criticizes the Trump economy for its impact on affordability, labeling his tariffs as heavy taxes on Virginians. While Virginia isn’t as solidly blue as New Jersey, parts of it are certainly leaning that way, especially in regions where federal workers have been affected by the shutdown.
Trying to sway Trump’s supporters in rural areas, Spanberger seems to be navigating some challenges. As one former senator noted, simply having a “D” next to your name in those communities makes winning tough, no matter the effort.
As we look at polling, it suggests that the race in Virginia could be narrowing. Strikingly, Trump seems less engaged in this election cycle, possibly because of the leaning Democratic nature of the races and an overarching sense of impending loss.
Meanwhile, Barack Obama has stepped in to support Spanberger and Sherrill, lending his influence to their campaigns.
The political landscape extends to New York City, where Trump has targeted Zoran Mamdani, who’s running to be the first Muslim mayor, labeling him as a “communist.” Republicans are trying to leverage Mamdani’s self-identification as a socialist to their advantage, hoping to create a narrative around him as a representation of the national Democratic Party.
Mamdani’s candidacy has been met with challenges, especially when set against the backdrop of former Governor Cuomo’s contentious past. Although recent polls show a closer race, Mamdani’s charisma may still give him an edge over his opponent Curtis Sliwa, who hasn’t withdrawn from contention.
The dynamic in this election suggests significant implications for the Democrats, especially with Mamdani’s controversial views potentially spotlighting the party in less liberal areas across the country.
Overall, off-year elections often serve as a barometer of voter sentiment, particularly when the incumbent president is absent from the ballot. This cycle, with its many unexpected twists, has certainly kept everyone on their toes.
