The government is expected to start closing down around 12:10 AM on Wednesday. The Senate is set to conduct a test vote aimed at overcoming the filibuster concerning the interim spending bill that was recently passed by the House. This, unfortunately, requires a 60-vote majority, highlighting the need for bipartisan support. Hence, a government shutdown seems increasingly likely.
The House of Representatives isn’t even in session this week, which complicates matters further. Additionally, Yom Kippur begins on Wednesday night, meaning that the government will be effectively non-operational for at least a few days.
It’s worth noting that the last government shutdown occurred from 2018 to 2019 and lingered for 35 days, marking the longest shutdown in U.S. history. During these closures, the Trump administration determined which agencies and services were deemed essential—military and national security operations continued, for instance.
According to the 27th Amendment, lawmakers must still be compensated even during shutdowns. The usual operations of national parks and museums are expected to halt, but the postal service will remain functional. Passport processing may be paused, yet air traffic controllers will stay on the job, albeit unpaid until an agreement is reached. Social Security payments will continue, although there’s always a risk that federal employees handling those checks won’t receive their salaries, potentially leading them to not report to work if the shutdown extends.
History shows that government shutdowns often create a breaking point where both sides are compelled to negotiate and reach a consensus. Take the 2013 case, for instance, where U.S. Capitol police officers were actively engaged in an emergency while working without pay. Their situations caught the attention of lawmakers, contributing to a resolution.
Fast forward to the 2019 shutdown, concerns about aviation safety forced a resolution as unpaid air traffic controllers began to delay flights, affecting major airports like LaGuardia and Newark. The looming threat of a major disaster spurred Congress and the Trump administration to come together and end the standoff.
So, who emerges victorious from such shutdowns? Measuring political success is tricky. Many believe former President Bill Clinton triumphed during his 1995-1996 stand-off with then-Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, eventually riding that wave into a successful re-election campaign in 1996. Meanwhile, Gingrich may have lost political ground but achieved significant budget reforms, which contributed to a federal surplus in the years that followed.
In 2013, Senator Ted Cruz orchestrated a shutdown focused on dismantling Obamacare, yet it remains intact today. Cruz was re-elected in 2018, even though the Democrats failed to capitalize on the situation in the 2014 midterms, allowing Republicans to expand their majority and gain control of the Senate.
The more recent shutdown in late 2018 left many wondering about the political implications, especially since it coincided with the swearing-in of newly elected members of Congress. By the time we were heading towards the 2020 elections, the Covid-19 pandemic overshadowed those discussions, impacting the political landscape in more significant ways. Ultimately, Trump lost the election that year, and the Democrats maintained control of the House, while narrowly winning the Senate.
