I think the Yankees will be fully committed to a long-term deal with Juan Soto after this season.
I wanted to say that up front, because when Hal Steinbrenner said last month, “Let’s be honest, our current pay levels are not financially sustainable,” the Hot Take Industrial Complex sprung into action and saw the fan base as preparing for Soto’s retirement in one year in a pinstriped uniform.
Maybe, but that’s not the conclusion I take from it. Steinbrenner wants a championship contender, and for that and for business purposes, I think he’ll see how good Soto is and invest both personally and financially to keep him, just like he did with Aaron Judge.
Soto and his agent, Scott Boras, will likely stress that he will accept bids from all 30 teams, but during his time with the Padres, Soto likely didn’t like home games finishing around 1 a.m. ET while his family, especially his mother, was asleep.
Still, Soto will have no shortage of suitors, even if he’s limited to East Chicago. He’s one of the best hitters under the age of 26 in history, and he won’t turn 26 until Oct. 25, the same time as Game 1 of the World Series. A lot can happen between now and then, as Soto’s forearm injury over the past few days has shown.
But with this trajectory, the Yankees will likely have a contender.
Is Steve Cohen willing to give up on Soto?
Shohei Ohtani offered a unique opportunity both as a player and as a marketable player, so teams may not be willing to pay that much for Soto, but the Cubs and Blue Jays were active in pursuing Ohtani, and I would imagine they would be aggressive in pursuing Soto given his age and impact.
Will the Nationals decide to get both in baseball? They traded Soto to the Padres, benefiting from other players like C.J. Abrams and Mackenzie Gore, as well as outfielder James Wood. Cavert Lewis has six years and $40 million left on his contract, which is the only long-term money Washington has left to invest.
There have been constant rumors that the Nationals could be sold, and if that were to happen in the short term, what could send a bigger message to fans than bringing Soto home?
But for this exercise, let’s assume the Yankees keep Soto. And, despite a call from Boras to be low, let’s put Soto’s salary at $47 million because that would be a record and would eclipse the current true value of Ohtani’s much-delayed contract.
At that figure, the Yankees would have $205.5 million for Soto, Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole, Giancarlo Stanton, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman and DJ LeMahieu (all of whom would be subject to the luxury tax, since Steinbrenner lamented how much extra tax would be on salaries, not just salaries.) That’s just seven players, plus another $10 million to cover the final contract year of Aaron Hicks, the gift that keeps on giving to the Yankees.
It would cost roughly another $20 million to cover all team fees, benefits and a 0-for-3 arbitration pool. The Yankees only have three arbitration-eligible players they are currently certain to arbitrate: Nestor Cortes, Clark Schmidt and Jose Trevino, plus they would pick up Luke Weaver’s $2.5 million option for 2025. Add that all together and the Yankees’ payroll should be around $250 million.
So, for example, if Steinbrenner’s plan is to ensure they are under the top threshold of $301 million next year, that will be a challenge, and if they are below the second threshold of $281 million, that will be extremely difficult.
The Yankees will need to look internally to replace the looming free agents on the cheap. Alex Verdugo has shown to be a great all-around complementary player, but Jasson Dominguez is ready to fill the void. Clay Holmes has been one of the best relief pitchers in the major leagues since joining the Yankees in 2021. But the Yankees have done a great job for years of unearthing good pitchers like Holmes and developing them into effective relievers. So Weaver or Ian Hamilton or someone else could be tapped for the closer job for a lot less money.
Would Jon Berti, Oswaldo Cabrera, Caleb Durbin or Oswaldo Peraza, individually or in combination, be ready to take over for Gleyber Torres? Anthony Rizzo is due $17 million in 2025, or a $6 million buyout, so it’s an $11 million decision. Rizzo was below average defensively and pitching this year. He has time to fix that, and Judge’s closeness with Steinbrenner is hard to ignore. But what if the Yankees think left-hander Ben Rice, who was promoted to Triple-A last week after hitting 12 home runs with an .849 OPS in 49 Double-A games, is ready to play first base in the majors?
Clearly, the Yankees need some young players to emerge and perform, but that alone won’t be enough to warrant respecting Steinbrenner’s directive, so the Yankees need to consider trading for a high-paid starting pitcher. With the emergence of Luis Gil, they could potentially acquire Gil, Gerrit Cole, Clark Schmidt, and two of Nestor Cortes, Carlos Rodon, or Marcus Stroman.
Cortes will make about $9 million next season, his final year before free agency. Stroman is on an $18 million contract through 2026 if he reaches 140 innings this year (74), with an $18 million player option. Rodon is on a four-year, $108 million contract.
Robbie Ray only started one game last year and needed Tommy John surgery, which meant he was almost guaranteed to miss at least the first half of this season, but the Mariners traded him to the Giants for three years, $73 million, and got Anthony DeSclafani and Mitch Haniger for $47.5 million. Rodon is in the midst of a resurgent season and should be valuable if he stays healthy, especially if the Yankees are willing to foot the bill or get some money back. Rodon has a full no-trade clause.
None of these decisions will be easy. All of the starting pitchers, including Verdugo and Holmes, have been huge contributors to the Yankees’ best record in the AL. But this is like setting a salary cap with the payroll set by Steinbrenner. Like in a salary-capped league, you can’t have it all. You can argue that Steinbrenner balances the books or has more room, but he’s said for years that he doesn’t think he needs a $300 million payroll to win, so I think he’ll try to settle for less, or maybe more. It might get easier after 2026 when LeMahieu and Stanton are done, but by then the Yankees will have to think about a long-term deal with Anthony Volpe. Maybe before then.
The Yankees will need to get very creative if they are to retain Soto, maintain his excellent performance and reduce their overall payroll.
