Slow Start for Halloween Candy Sales Amid High Prices
This year’s Halloween candy sales are lagging as consumers in the U.S. grapple with rising living costs and soaring chocolate prices. According to NielsenIQ, a market research firm, sales dropped by 6.7% in the month ending October 17 compared to last year. Additionally, there was an 11.7% decrease in candy sales as of mid-September, undoing the gains seen in previous years.
Chris Costagli, who is a vice president at NielsenIQ, mentioned that high gas prices are exacerbating concerns about affordability, leading to less demand for Halloween goodies. He pointed out that, as of last Friday, the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.29, which has increased nearly 40% since last year. He suggested that consumers are spending significantly more on essentials like fuel, housing, and food, which affects their willingness to purchase Halloween candy. It’s not merely a matter of noticing increased prices; many simply lack the financial ability to buy it this year.
Interestingly, only small candy bags experienced sales growth through mid-October, while larger bags have seen the steepest declines. The prices of candy have been rising faster than inflation over the last several years. Government data indicates that as of September, candy and gum prices surged by 44% over a five-year span, compared to a 22.5% increase for all food consumed at home.
This week, Aldi, a discount grocery chain, advertised a 135-piece variety pack of Mars chocolate bars—like Milky Way, Trix, and Snickers—for $19.87. This is nearly equivalent to the cost of a 250-piece variety pack from five years ago.
Cocoa prices play a large role in this upward trend. The global price of cocoa hit a staggering $10,710 per metric ton in January 2025, driven by adverse weather in West Africa—home to 70% of the world’s chocolate—and speculative trading in cocoa futures, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. While cocoa prices had steadily decreased to around $3,241 per metric ton by March, they began to rise again due to disruptions in fertilizer supplies caused by the Iran war. The El Niño weather pattern is expected to further hinder production conditions, bringing hot and dry weather until February.
Despite fluctuations, even when prices dip—Costagli noted consumer demand feels quiet. For instance, non-chocolate Halloween candies like gummies and lollipops had an average price of $6.08 per pound in the nine weeks ending October 17, which is about 3% lower than last year, yet this did not correlate with any increase in sales.
Sally Lyons Wyatt, an executive vice president at Circana, a market research firm, suggested that Americans are adapting to higher grocery prices by making smaller, more frequent shopping trips and buying items just before use. This makes her wonder if many might be postponing their candy purchases until closer to Halloween.
“People are indeed more thoughtful about their consumption habits, not just during the holidays, but in general,” she said. While she believes there will still be a softness in candy sales, she does not think Halloween sales are hopeless.
The National Confectioners Association, which represents candy brands like Mars and Ferrara Candy Co., expressed optimism about Halloween sales. They noted that we are just entering the critical Halloween shopping period and that consumer enthusiasm remains strong.
