A new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris widening her lead over former President Donald Trump. vote It was released on Thursday.
The survey found Ms Harris leading Mr Trump, 45% to 41%. The 4 percentage point lead among registered voters was larger than the 1 point lead Ms Harris had over Mr Trump in the previous survey conducted in July. The poll had a margin of error of 2%.
Polling guru Nate Slivers' latest model shows Harris performing poorly.
“I wouldn't recommend worrying too much about the difference between a 52/48 race on one side and 48/52 on the other, but it's not a huge difference. Our models show Donald Trump with a slight lead for the first time since August 3rd, so it was not a good day for Kamala Harris,” Silver wrote. Silver Bulletin“And there's one big reason for that: Pennsylvania is a tipping point state with a one-third or greater chance, and it's been a long time since we've seen a poll that shows Harris in the lead.”
Silver's model takes into account Harris' tournament backlash.
“The model also applies an adjustment for Harris's recent gains in national polls to her numbers for her increased support at the convention, but whether that's a correct assumption is debatable,” he wrote. “But ultimately, the model predicts that the Electoral College and popular vote gaps will widen again, which has long been a concern for Harris. The model estimates there is a 17% chance that Harris will win the popular vote but not the Electoral College.”
The shift in polls reflects a race that has been thrown into turmoil by the assassination attempt on Trump and President Biden's decision to drop out of the race and endorse Harris.
