A new poll shows that Vice President Harris and New Mexico Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-New Mexico) are holding large leads over their Republican opponents in the heavily Democratic state, where Republicans offered some optimism when President Biden was still on the campaign trail.
An Emerson College Poll/The Hill poll released Friday showed Ms. Harris leading former President Trump by 10 points (52 percent to 42 percent), with 6 percent undecided. In races that include third-party candidates, Ms. Harris’ lead has grown to 11 points (51 percent to 40 percent), with independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leading by 3 percent.
In the Senate race, Heinrich holds a similarly large lead over Republican Nella Domenici by 12 points (49 percent to 37 percent), with 4 percent backing another candidate and 9 percent undecided.
The results are good news for Democrats just over a month after Republicans turned to traditionally Democratic-leaning states like New Mexico as Biden reeled from a poor debate performance in late June and began to slip in the polls.
New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham (Democrat) expressed concern about whether Biden could win the state during a meeting the president held with Democratic governors last month in the aftermath of the debate.
But Emerson’s poll numbers suggest that New Mexico, like other ideologically similar states, is shifting steadily back toward the Democratic ticket.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of the Emerson College Poll, said in a statement that Harris’ lead is similar to the 10.8-point margin that Biden carried in the state in 2020.
She has a nine-point lead among independents (48 percent to 37 percent) and a 17-point lead among women (55 percent to 38 percent).
The poll found that the top problem facing the state was the economy, cited by 29% of respondents, followed by crime at 18% and immigration at 13%.
“Voters who say the economy is the top issue are sharply split in favor of Trump, 54% to 38%, crime, 47% to 45% and immigration, 89% to 9%. Voters who say education, health care, home prices, threats to democracy and abortion are the top issues are sharply split in favor of Harris, on average 82% to 15%,” Kimball said.
Trump has a large lead among voters who consider immigration to be a top issue, but Harris leads by two points, 48 percent to 46 percent, when asked who voters more trust to handle immigration in the state.
The poll was conducted among 965 voters from August 20 to 22, and has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
