Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight lead over former President Trump in the key battleground state of Michigan, according to a new poll.
With 41 days until the November 5 presidential election, a new USA Today/Suffolk University poll of 500 voters in Great Lakes states shows Democratic candidate Harris leading Republican candidate Trump by three points, 48% to 45%.
The poll was conducted Sept. 16-19, after the first and likely only debate between Harris and Trump and the second assassination attempt on Trump on Sept. 15. The margin of error is 4.4 percentage points.
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Harris spoke at a Labor Day event at Northwestern High School in Detroit, Michigan on September 2, 2024. (Jeff Kowalski/AFP via Getty Images)
Michigan's ballot also features six third-party candidates, including independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who suspended his campaign last month and endorsed Trump. Each candidate has less than 1% support, but each could act as a deterrent if the gap between the two major party candidates narrows, said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Center for Political Studies.
“If Kamala Harris' lead shrinks to one point, winning or losing the entire state of Michigan hinges on the fringes of Michigan's votes,” he said. USA Today“The actions of third-party voters — those who are often derided as wasting their vote — could change the outcome depending on whether they vote for Harris or Trump.”
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President Trump attended a town hall meeting moderated by Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders at the Dort Financial Center in Flint, Michigan on September 17, 2024. (Jeff Kowalski/AFP via Getty Images)
Since endorsing Trump, Kennedy has tried to remove his name from the ballot in several states, including Michigan, but is fighting to get his name on the ballot in New York, where he was disqualified, in a move that appears to be an attempt to steal support from Harris in the heavily Democratic state.
Last month, the Michigan Supreme Court, in a divided decision, overturned a lower court order to remove Kennedy's name from the ballot. The Michigan Secretary of State's office has said minor party candidates cannot withdraw from an election once they appear on the ballot. Kennedy has appealed the case to the U.S. 6th Circuit Court of Appeals.
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Major party presidential candidates: Vice President Kamala Harris (left) and former President Donald Trump. (Getty Images)
Michigan, along with fellow Rust Belt states Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, are known as the “Blue Wall.” The three states have voted for the same presidential candidate, usually a Democrat, in every election since 1988. The exception was in 2016, when Trump won all three states in a major upset victory over Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. Four years later, President Biden defeated Trump in Michigan and the other Blue Wall states, and also won the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada in the 2020 presidential election.
The Trump and Harris campaigns have made these blue wall states a campaign priority all summer.
In Kent County, a benchmark county that includes Grand Rapids and nearby cities, Harris leads Trump by 3 percentage points (48% to 45%), according to a USA Today/Suffolk University poll. Trump won the county with 48% of the vote in 2016 to Hillary Clinton's 45%, while Biden won with 52% of the vote in 2020 to Trump's 46%.
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There is a large gender gap between the major party candidates, with Harris receiving 56% support among women to Trump's 37%, while Trump leads Harris among men 54% to 39%, according to the survey.
Trump holds a slight lead among independents, 42% to 41%.
Fox News Digital's Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.
