Just two weeks ago, amid debate over whether President Biden should remain in the presidential race, many Democrats were questioning whether Vice President Harris could beat former President Trump.
Democrats who doubted Harris were largely focused on one thing: their nightmare 2016 election, in which Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in an election Democrats were then certain to win.
“We went to a dark place where a lot of people were thinking, ‘Hillary Clinton can’t win,’ so what reason do we have to believe Kamala can win?” one Democratic strategist said.
Those doubts are now largely a thing of the past, as Harris has taken over the reins from Biden and is all but certain to become the party’s nominee.
But from the start, Harris has proven to be a different candidate than Clinton.
She has raised record amounts of money and, in some ways, stolen the spotlight from Trump, the media maven. She has energized the party and packed arenas.
Many Democrats are hopeful that this time Trump will be defeated, shattering the country’s highest glass ceiling.
“She’s not Hillary,” the strategist said. “This is in no way a disparagement of Hillary. She certainly paved the way and helped create this moment in many ways, and we owe Hillary a huge debt of gratitude.”
Ms. Harris has relied on many of Ms. Clinton’s former aides: Her chief of staff, Lorraine Vowles, served as Ms. Clinton’s communications aide, and Harris’ communications director, Brian Fallon, served as chief spokesman for Ms. Clinton’s 2016 campaign.
But the differences in the race so far are striking, Democratic strategists say.
First, Clinton emphasized the historic nature of her campaign with slogans like “I’m with her.” After examining the 2016 campaign, Democrats concluded that was the wrong approach for voters who wanted a candidate who would speak for them in an overcrowded era.
Harris, the first woman and first Black and South Asian American to hold the vice presidential position, has not spoken much about her potentially history-making campaign, instead speaking about freedom and the future at rallies as Beyonce’s song of the same name blares out.
“We’re not going back,” she told the crowd, eliciting cheers, reminiscent of President Obama’s 2012 “move forward” mantra.
Times are different. Harris had the benefit of taking notes.
In 2016, Democrats had a different belief system, they say, pointing to former First Lady Michelle Obama’s now-famous line, “If they go low, we go high.” Back then, Democrats didn’t want to get bogged down in Trump. They believed in taking the moral high ground. Meanwhile, Clinton repeatedly warned voters, “When someone shows you who they are, believe them.”
At the time, many people didn’t take Trump seriously, and few believed he could win.
But he won, and his victory continues to haunt Democrats to this day. Now, Harris and her team are deliberately framing her candidacy as a prosecutor taking on convicted felons.
“In 2016, Democrats believed that the normal rules of politics would apply when it came to running against Donald Trump in the election,” said Jamal Simmons, a Democratic strategist who served as Harris’ communications director until last year and has close ties to the Clinton campaign. “In 2024, we know that those rules no longer apply. This is a bare-knuckle street brawl.”
Tracy Seful, a Democratic consultant who advised Clinton, agreed, pointing to the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade and other issues that energize the Democratic base.
“Voters have seen what Trump has done; we have lived through his presidency,” Seful said. “Voters have seen the country change at a distressingly rapid pace. Two years after Dobbs, abortion is now banned in 22 states.”
“And through all this time, we’ve weathered sexism and misogyny, and we know that we will no longer be surprised by racism, lies and hate,” she added. “Voters sense that presumptive nominee Kamala Harris will not take anything or anyone for granted. She is apparently driven by fresh energy, emotion and urgency.”
Political analysts say the short time frame — about 90 days left — also works in Harris’ favor, pointing to Clinton’s tough but bruising victory over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in the 2016 primary.
“The shortened deadline is a real advantage for her,” said Susan Del Percio, a veteran Republican strategist who has not backed Trump. “They don’t have time to overthink it. They just have to get going. It’s going to make them a lot more nimble.”
Del Percio said the time frame also works because less is known about Harris, at least compared to Clinton.
Hillary Clinton, a former first lady, New York senator and secretary of state, has been a high-profile and easy target for Republicans for decades.
Like Clinton, Trump is well known to voters, and polls reflect that many voters are tired of him, Del Percio said.
“Between an unknown candidate and a candidate nobody likes, I’ll take the unknown candidate any day,” she said.
