Vice President Harris is generally gaining support in key battleground states that she needs to win to win the presidential election in November.
Harris turned the tide after President Biden struggled to beat former President Trump in seven key electoral contests.
Several recent polls have shown Harris leading in key battleground states, or at least narrowing her gap to Trump, with Harris leading by one point in all seven battleground states. Released Wednesday According to the Cook Political Report Swing States Project.
All of this will have deep implications for the fight to gain majorities in the Senate and especially the House, where every seat is at stake.
The past three weeks have been a reminder of how quickly things can change in the political world, and things could change again by November.
However, the current situation in the seven major battleground states in the presidential election is as follows:
Arizona
According to several published polls, Harris has been closing the gap on Trump in the Grand Canyon State since emerging as the Democratic nominee.
The vice president was trailing by seven points in The Hill/Decision Desk Arizona polling average when he entered the race, but now he’s trailing by just 0.7 points.
A battleground state poll gave Trump a one-point lead over Biden in Arizona in May, but the latest version gives Harris a two-point lead in the head-to-head race.
Her performance in this poll improves when other candidates, such as independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., are included. In that scenario, Ms. Harris leads Mr. Trump by four points, which is consistent with other polls that have shown her performance improves when other candidates are included.
All of these figures are within the margin of error, but other polls also suggest the race is tighter than when Biden was the Democratic nominee.
A HighGround Public Affairs poll released last week showed Harris leading by about 3 percentage points. 1 point difference The poll was conducted by right-leaning polling firm Trafalgar Group.
Georgia
Like Arizona, Georgia is leaning toward Harris, but her lead over Trump, who is leading by about 2 points in The Hill/DDHQ average, is still wide.
The Cook Poll had Harris and Trump tied at 48% in their head-to-head race, a change from when Trump had a 3-point lead over Biden. An AARP poll released Thursday showed the same results, with Trump leading by 2 points when Kennedy was included.
The poll also found that Ms Harris has a slight lead among independents and is neck and neck with Mr Trump in favorability ratings – a major weakness that has always plagued Mr Biden.
A few weeks ago, Trump held the largest lead in the six battleground states most crucial to the election’s outcome, excluding North Carolina, but now it’s back at stake.
Michigan
Michigan, a key part of the Midwestern “blue wall” states that decided the last two elections, was seen as a key and more realistic path to victory for Biden as other states become harder to win.
But he’s still a few points behind on average, and Harris has recently taken the lead: She’s up 2 points in The Hill/DDHQ polling average, and she surpassed Trump soon after becoming the nominee.
The Cook poll showed Harris’ performance in Michigan was a marked improvement over the project’s polling of Biden in May, when the incumbent lost by 2 points and Harris is now leading by 3 points.
In another sign of the vice president’s strength in Michigan, a New York Times/Siena College poll gave her a 4-point lead — still within the margin of error but an improvement over Biden’s best showing in the state.
Some Democrats are concerned about Michigan because of its large Arab-American population and the party’s internal divisions over the war between Israel and Hamas. But polls show Harris is leading the way. Improvements seen among key demographics In states where Biden’s support was low, including among young voters and independents.
Nevada
Nevada hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 2004, but a series of close elections has meant it has always been considered a battleground state, and that’s likely to continue this year with Harris running.
Only a few polls have been conducted in the state since Harris became the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, but those that have been released suggest the race between Biden and Trump is much closer than expected.
Nevada was the only state Cook surveyed where Trump had a lead, and in the head-to-head race against Harris, he had a 3-point lead.
When other candidates were included, his lead widened to five points.
Still, Harris’ numbers are a notable improvement over Biden’s in May, when she was nine points behind Trump alone and eight points behind other candidates.
Several other polls have narrowed the gap between Trump and Harris even further, including one from Public Opinion Strategies that has Harris trailing by one point. First released He topped the poll this month, climbing to second place in a Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll released late last month.
Governor Cook last week reclassified the state’s election results from “Republican lead” to “close” based on the numbers released.
Harris voiced support for Trump’s idea of eliminating the tip tax over the weekend, in a move widely seen as a ploy to win the hearts and minds of hospitality workers, particularly in Las Vegas.
North Carolina
North Carolina has been somewhat of an under-the-radar state for Democrats, who last won the state in 2008. It has been out of reach in the polls for both Trump and Biden, but Harris’ candidacy has clearly brought it back into the spotlight.
Cook’s poll showed Harris rebounding from a seven-point lead over Biden in May to just one point ahead of Trump. Among third-party candidates, Trump had an eight-point lead over Harris, while Harris had a two-point lead.
Democrats are eyeing the state as their biggest opportunity to expand their reach beyond the coalition that Biden won in the 2020 election, and Harris is scheduled to deliver her first major policy speech at a North Carolina rally on Friday.
Pennsylvania
The Keystone State has 19 electoral votes, the most valuable of all battleground states. Analysts point out as one of the states most likely to vote the same as the state as a whole.
Biden trailed Trump closely for much of the campaign, but the lead began to widen after the debate. Harris has steadily grown in support in recent weeks and is leading by a slim 0.6 percentage point margin since last weekend in The Hill/DDHQ average.
The increase comes after a number of polls were released showing her leading by several points. The Cook Poll gives her a one-point lead in head-to-head battles with Trump, but that lead grows to five points when third-party candidates are included.
The Times/Siena poll had her leading by 4 points, just as she did in Michigan, and a Quinnipiac University poll had her leading by 3 points with or without Kennedy, which showed her leading among women, whites and college-educated voters.
Other polls still show Trump leading, making the state one of the closest in the country.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin Most polarized states Nationally, the state is in a close race.
The state was one of Biden’s bright spots before he dropped out of the race, and he was neck and neck with Trump or had a slight lead in the final two months of the campaign.
The Democratic lead has grown since Harris entered the race.
She leads Trump by 3.5 points in The Hill/DDHQ average, the largest average lead among battleground states.
The Cook poll gives Biden a three-point lead when facing Trump alone and a five-point lead when facing third-party candidates. In a May poll, Biden was tied in both cases.
She was leading by four points in a Times/Siena poll and by two points in a Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll. A Marquette Law School poll conducted in late July had Trump leading by one point.
