Polling firm Nate Silver’s election forecast shows Vice President Harris holding a narrow lead over former President Trump for the first time since the model began.
A national Silver Bulletin poll showed Harris beating Trump by 1.4 percentage points. Poll AverageThe vice president has a forecast lead for the first time, with the latest model showing Harris’ approval rating at 45.5%, compared to Trump’s 44.1%.
The race between Harris and Trump is still considered a “50-50” in the latest forecasts published on Sunday, with the model giving Harris a 51 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.
Silver says On social media The Electoral College contest will likely be close.
“One rule of thumb to analyze this is that if Harris ends up somewhere between Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020, the Electoral College vote count will be very close, and that’s the best guess of the outcome this model has come up with,” Silver wrote about his latest election predictions on social platform X.
Harris has stirred enthusiasm among Democrats in the first few weeks of her campaign, raising $310 million last month. The Trump campaign said last week it had raised nearly $139 million in July and had $327 million in cash on hand.
Silver on Thursday changed his rating of the presidential race to “50-50,” saying Harris made it closer than when President Biden was in the lead.
Harris has been closing the gap on Trump in many national and battleground state polls in recent weeks, and a new CBS News/YouGov poll shows the two candidates tied in key battleground states and gives Harris a one-point lead over Trump nationally.
The Trump campaign on Sunday rejected the CBS News/YouGov poll, accusing it of “sticking its finger at the poll scale” in Harris’s favor. Silver responded to the X poll’s criticism: “I’m bullish on Harris.”
