A top bipartisan political handicapper is predicting Vice President Kamala Harris will win three key states in the 2024 election showdown with former President Donald Trump.
The Cook Political Report has North Carolina trending from Republican to close, and the Tar Heel State is one of seven battleground states nationwide that could decide the outcome of the presidential election.
Former President Barack Obama was the last Democrat to win the state in the 2008 election for the White House.
Four years ago, Trump narrowly beat President Biden in the state, but after Biden's disastrous debate defeat in late June, Trump's lead in North Carolina has grown to mid-single digits.
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Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the Hendrick Center for Automotive Excellence on the Scott Northern Wake Campus of Wake Tech Community College, Aug. 16, 2024, in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Alison Joyce/AFP via Getty Images)
After Biden ended his 2024 reelection efforts on July 21 and Harris replaced her boss as the Democratic national campaign leader, the race in North Carolina tightened to within the margin of error.
“Trump has not lost any political ground since July. Instead, Harris outperformed Biden by seven points.” Cook Political Report Publisher and editor-in-chief Amy Walter wrote about the change in ratings:
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“In other words, the race is tightening not because Harris is chipping away at Trump's votes, but because Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are returning home,” Walter added.
Trump is determined not to lose North Carolina, having campaigned there three times since Biden dropped out of the race five and a half weeks ago.
Former President Donald Trump speaks from behind bulletproof glass during a campaign rally at the North Carolina Aviation Museum and Hall of Fame in Asheboro, North Carolina, on August 21, 2024. (Photo: Peter Zai/AFP via Getty Images)
Additionally, the Trump campaign has outspent Harris' campaign by $8.3 million on advertising in North Carolina since the president dropped out of the 2024 race, according to national ad tracking firm AdImpact. But Harris' campaign currently has $30 million in ad space in the state, compared to just $7.3 million for the Trump campaign.
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The Cook Political Report joins another leading nonpartisan political forecasting site, Sabato's Crystal Ball, from the University of Virginia Center for Politics, in classifying North Carolina as evenly split.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. (AP Photo)
Walter also helped flip Minnesota and New Hampshire from Democratic to Democratic-leaning states, two presidential battleground states that Democrats have reliably won for decades.
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Weeks after the Biden-Trump debate, polls showed Trump gaining support in Minnesota, a state not won by a Republican in more than half a century, and New Hampshire, where Democrats have won five consecutive races for the White House.
But Walter said, “Harris was able to realign and revitalize the Democratic coalition…taking states like Minnesota and New Hampshire out of reach for the Trump campaign.”
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