HART: Polls Don’t Lie — Pollsters Do. Look To Vegas Odds For Real Information.

Let’s face it, no one really knows who will win every election. The reason elections are held on Tuesday is because the calendar days that follow are, appropriately, WTF.

Since I write this satirical tripe each week, folks mistakenly think I know what I am talking about.  They often ask me, “Who will win the upcoming elections?” They tell me that CNN says one thing and MSNBC pundits say another. 

None of the pundits and “talking heads” has any history of being correct. Their predictions are more spin than fact. They think 8 out of 6 voters consider Trump a criminal. And if one of these pundits ever happened to be right, it would be like having the best teeth at a meth addicts’ clinic. Most talking heads on TV say the Democrats will keep the House and Senate. I’m not buying it. 

When asked, I always say, “Do not listen to biased news, prognosticators or polling. Look to the Las Vegas odds for the best prediction of what will happen.” The one I like is electionbettingodds.com. It is run by FTX and is reliable. Don’t trust what people say, trust what they do — especially with their money.  

Vegas odds are like free market capitalism.  The more money that is allowed to flow freely into them, the better off we all are. Getting your political odds from CNN or other left-wing media is like getting your COVID advice from Fauci and the government. Or it’s like asking a Progressive insurance agent what policy to buy or Pfizer what drug to use.  Don’t. They have an agenda. People trust Dr. Dre more than Dr. Fauci. 

The same goes for NCAA or Coach’s polls. They have Tennessee #1 and they play Georgia this weekend. Georgia is an eight-point favorite. Whom do you believe? 

Remember when the polls had Hillary Clinton trouncing Trump with blue collar workers, blacks and Hispanics? Well, funny thing. It turned out that Hillary just polled well with one group: pollsters.  And they tend to be overwhelmingly Democrats since they are often university-based, fund raising-driven, or part of the permanent Washington political class. 

The left says everyone is racist because they assume certain political proclivities about certain groups. But they are the first to tell you that African Americans should vote for Democrats and the rich white folks for Republican. To them, “demographics,” not racism, is the reason. So pollsters make certain assumptions. They were shocked when African Americans in West Virginia, whom they assumed would vote Democrat, didn’t. But pollsters discovered upon closer inspection that the men they polled were white coal miners just getting off work. 

When Dems fretted that African Americans were not getting their government vaccine like they mandated, it never crossed their minds that there are African Americans who lived under other Democratic administrations and witnessed or heard about the Tuskegee Experiment. 

They did not get the contempt for Washington that Middle America had, which resulted in many ex-Democrats voting for Trump. Trump was elected by then and had to spend his four years winning Republicans over to his side.  

The way the media and the left attack and vilify anyone who votes Republican begs the question: Why in the world would you tell a pollster, a perfect stranger, how you are inclined to vote? Currently, that will get you on a list which Democrats seem ready and willing to use to go after you. For personal safety, people trust porn sites more than they trust polling sites. At least on porn sites it is not you getting screwed. 

We know Dems ignore polls except for their fundraising value. Americans say when polled that their most pressing concerns are inflation, crime, nuclear war and the open border. So, what are Dems running on?  Racism, transgender rights, January 6th and MAGA Republicans as “terrorists.”

Biden so misinterprets public sentiment out there that when he goes to football games now, he thinks the crowds are chanting that they all want to have sex with him. 

What the polls miss about this election is the people’s anger against the Democrats for the way they have handled power and “woke” policies. We voters are furious, and we will soon flush the Swamp.

And why are we so angry? No one has ever purchased a plunger in a good mood. 


A libertarian op-ed humorist and award-winning author, Ron does commentary on radio and TV. He can be contacted at Ron@RonaldHart.com or @RonaldHart on Twitter.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller.

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