History reveals US regions where major storms are most likely to strike

While the entire U.S. coastline is vulnerable to landfalling hurricanes, history has shown that there are hurricane “hot spots” — places where storms make landfall most frequently.

While it’s impossible to reliably predict where a hurricane will make landfall weeks or months in advance, the Fox Forecast Center said it’s important to know which parts of the country have historically been most at risk.

To help with this, researchers at the National Hurricane Center have compiled data showing how frequently hurricanes pass within 50 nautical miles (nm) of specific points on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts.

For example, a hurricane’s 20-year recurrence cycle means that on average over the past 100 years, a hurricane has passed within 50 nautical miles of a location about five times.

Extrapolating this average, we can expect an average of five more hurricanes to occur within that radius over the next 100 years.

South Florida and North Carolina are especially vulnerable

The hurricane “hot spots” are the most prominent coastal areas: South Florida, North Carolina, and Louisiana.

On average, North Carolina’s Outer Banks is expected to experience a hurricane about every five to seven years, according to NHC data.

Meanwhile, locations along the South Florida coast could experience a hurricane within 50 nautical miles every six to eight years, with a major hurricane making landfall every 14 to 19 years, the NHC said.

Other notable locations: The northern Gulf Coast can expect a hurricane to make landfall every 10 years, but Cameron, Louisiana, averages about once every 14 years.

On the Texas coast, a hurricane strikes a particular spot about once every 15 to 20 years.

New England has the lowest tropical storm frequency, with cooler water temperatures and favorable northern topography limiting storm formation.

But data shows that any location on the Northeast Coast can expect a tropical storm to hit on average once every 30 to 50 years, although anyone who remembers Superstorm Sandy knows the region is prone to tropical storm damage.

In fact, every location along the coast is at least at risk of a hurricane in any given year, and everyone needs to be prepared.