The 2024 race for the White House between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump has become a close race just weeks after they became the presumptive nominees of their respective parties, according to recent national and battleground state polls. It seems to be happening.
Although Mr. Biden is not leading in the Real Clear Politics (RCP) national election, average Since early September 2023, the gap with Trump has fallen to just 0.6 percentage points. Former presidents still outperform the RCP average. arizona, georgia, nevada, wisconsin, michigan and north carolinaBut recent polls show his lead shrinking. (Related: Poll after poll finds voters feel much better about President Trump than Biden)
“I think we’re going to see some tension now that both candidates have secured their nominations,” John McHenry, a Republican polling analyst and vice president of North Star Opinion Research, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. ” he said. “We were expecting this matchup, but all of the non-official candidates have a different mindset. There is no doubt that he thinks he has. He will lose the referendum on his leadership. What we are seeing now is a completely unknown It’s a choice between two candidates, and it’s a closer call than just a yes vote for Biden.”
Trump and Biden passed the delegate threshold in the March 12 primary, effectively securing the nomination.
Marquette Law School investigation Thursday’s announcement showed Mr. Biden leading Mr. Trump by 4 points among likely voters nationwide. three other poll Results released this week showed the president leading by one to two points.emerson college poll The report, also released Thursday, showed Biden with a 51% to 49% lead among “very likely voters.”
The last time Mr. Trump held a narrow lead over Mr. Biden was 0.6 points on January 10, and before that was 0.7 points on November 13, according to RCP averages.
Celinda Lake, a longtime Democratic pollster and strategist, told DCNF that polling is “definitely a trend.”
“This is primarily due to growing enthusiasm for Biden among Democrats and softening enthusiasm for Trump among Republicans,” Lake said. “Third parties have been pulling back from Trump just as much as Biden has lately.”
In the national three-way race, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has garnered 12.3% support, increasing his lead over Trump to 5.4 points. according to up to RCP average. “Justice for All” candidate Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein also It containsthe former president leads by 1.9 points.
Trump’s largest lead on the RCP average was 4.3 points on January 26th. The former president has already led Biden in more than 130 polls this term, far surpassing his record in both polls. 2016 and 2020according to the RCP average.
MC/Bloomberg: February ➡️ March
• Wisconsin: Trump +4 ➡️ Biden +1
• Pennsylvania: Trump +6 ➡️Tie
• Michigan: Trump +2 ➡️ Tie
• Nevada: Trump +6 ➡️ Trump +2
• Georgia: Trump +6 ➡️ Trump +7
• Arizona: Trump +6 ➡️ Trump +5
• North Carolina: Trump +9 ➡️ Trump +6 https://t.co/izCJQg6CyB pic.twitter.com/qE5yy2xQH8— Interactive Polls (@IAPolls2022) March 26, 2024
In the following battleground states, RCP averages are: michigan, north carolina, georgia and Pennsylvaniathe race seems to be getting tougher.
Additionally, Bloomberg/Morning Consult investigation Data released on March 26 showed the race in all seven battleground states except Georgia is closer than it was last held. Voted middle of February. A Hill College-Emerson College poll released in the same battleground states in March showed the matchups in each state were becoming more competitive. nevada, michigan and georgia.
Scott Jennings, a Republican strategist and veteran of numerous campaigns, said he believes the former president has a “fundamentally” advantage over Biden, although “there have been some small, marginal movements toward Biden.” He claimed that
“But I also think that if you thought this race wasn’t close, you were sorely mistaken. Whether you like Biden or like Trump, it’s going to be close here,” Jennings told DCNF. . “So my prediction is that we’re going to see some ups and downs in the polls. Maybe one day we’ll see Trump blown up in the polls, and another day we’ll see Biden blown away.” I might.”
Kyle Kondik, a nonpartisan polling analyst and editor-in-chief of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, echoed Jennings’ sentiments about the competitive nature of the race.
“There will be fluctuations in the polls over time. This is not necessarily a profound thing to say, but our default position is that this is set up for a close and competitive election. I think that should be the case. That’s what happened the last six times,” Kondik told DNCF.
Neither the Trump nor Biden campaigns responded to DCNF’s requests for comment.
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