Telsey Advisory Group CEO Dana Telsey shares her thoughts on the retail industry and consumer behavior on Barron's Roundtable.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) predicted that holiday spending will rise to a new record this year, totaling $979.5 billion to $989 billion, as consumers lean toward e-commerce.
This reflects growth of ~3.5%, the slowest pace in the past six years. Last year's holiday sales increased 3.9% to $955.6 billion.
E-commerce is seen as a key driver of retail sales growth during the 2024 holiday season, according to NRF, the nation's largest retail trade association.
Specifically, online and other non-store sales are expected to account for between $295.1 billion and $297.9 billion of total spending, up from $273.3 billion last year, according to NRF estimates.
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Notable differences between this year and last include the shopping period between Thanksgiving and Christmas, which was nearly a week shorter for a total of 26 days, and the economic impact of Hurricanes Helen and Milton.
Shoppers carry bags at Polaris Fashion Place Mall on Black Friday, November 24, 2023 in Columbus, Ohio. (Matthew Hatcher/via Bloomberg/Getty Images)
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said he was optimistic “about the pace of economic activity and growth expected in the second half of this year,” even though consumers remain under pressure, particularly due to the weak U.S. job market. It's on point.
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“Household finances are in good shape, driving strong spending in the lead-up to the year-end sales season, but households will likely be more cautious in their spending,” Kleinhenz said.
Staff processing orders at Amazon Swansea fulfillment center. (Matt Cardy/Getty Images)
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Adobe said earlier this season that online spending is primarily Discounts skyrocket and the popularity of buy now, pay later services.
actual, Buy now, pay later serviceallowing consumers to pay in installments will lead to a record $18.5 billion in online spending, up 11.4% year over year.
