Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to its lowest point in two months, according to a ship-tracking service and insurance broker on Monday. This decline follows a series of missile and drone attacks by Iran on commercial vessels, and the U.S. responding with airstrikes.
Kpler, a maritime information firm, observed that as tensions escalate, many ships have been disabling their Automatic Identification System (AIS) broadcasts. This makes it hard to pinpoint how many vessels are navigating the strait. However, estimates suggest that traffic has reached its lowest level since May 25.
Gibson Shipbrokers, based in the UK, cautioned that the economic fallout from this new crisis in the Strait of Hormuz might be even more severe than previous ones.
“Given that global inventories have been declining rapidly lately, we could see a significant tightening in the tanker market. This might elevate prices and introduce considerable risks,” said Gibson.
Crude oil prices were noted to have risen, although shares initially fell 4% in early trading on Monday, but then settled a bit as the day progressed.
Goldman Sachs highlighted that the recent assaults underscore the volatility of Gulf exports. A serious escalation could intensify immediate upward pressures on oil prices.
This warning from Gibson and Goldman Sachs came after the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that the global oil supply has not fully bounced back after a ceasefire was agreed upon in June between the U.S. and Iran to restore depleted reserves in the Persian Gulf.
Much of the world’s LNG supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, predominantly sourced from Qatar. The current crisis began when Iran launched attacks, with a Qatari LNG tanker being the most severely impacted among three commercial vessels.
The Iranian regime and the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) issued statements about their confrontations. CENTCOM claimed that “passage through the Strait of Hormuz is currently impossible,” but also assured that the strait remains open for ships seeking lawful passage.
“Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz. This strait is an international waterway, and U.S. forces are on standby to ensure its safety,” CENTCOM stated.
To underscore this commitment, CENTCOM announced the deployment of three unmanned surface vessels. This marked a historic moment for the U.S. military as they aimed to target a submarine and ship maintenance facility at Iran’s Bandar Abbas Naval Base.
According to the statement, it was the first instance of the U.S. military employing a maritime drone in combat operations. In June, similar drones had been involved in rescuing a downed American military helicopter crew.
President Trump made remarks on Truth Social, asserting, “The Strait of Hormuz is open and will remain so, whether Iran likes it or not.”
He mentioned reinstating what he referred to as the Iranian blockade, which only restricts Iranian ships, while assuring that other countries will have equitable access to the strait.
Trump expressed that the U.S. aims to be recognized as the “Guardian of the Strait of Hormuz” and anticipated being reimbursed “20% for every cargo ship” for protection services offered to international shipping.
A spokesperson for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) accused the United States of jeopardizing the security of global oil and gas supplies.
The Revolutionary Guards declared that Iran has complete control over the strait and will compel foreign powers to comply with the wishes of the Iranian people.
“We will inflict even greater humiliation on them in response to this aggressive act,” the statement concluded.
