Climate change caused global annual temperatures to exceed the internationally agreed 1.5°C target for the first time last year, further accelerating extreme weather events and causing “misery for millions of people”.
The average temperature in 2024 was 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels. Data from the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). This is an increase of 0.1 degrees from 2023, which was also the hottest year on record, and represents a level of heat never experienced by modern humans.
Heating is primarily caused by the combustion of fossil fuels, and until coal, oil and gas are replaced, the damage to lives and livelihoods will continue to increase around the world. The Paris Agreement goal of 1.5 degrees is measured over 10 or 20 years, so one year above that level doesn't mean we've met the goal, but it does mean the climate emergency continues to worsen. is shown. Records dating back to 1850 show that each of the past 10 years has been among the 10 hottest years.
C3S data also shows that on July 10, 2024, 44% of the Earth was affected by extreme heat stress of record strength, with the hottest day on record occurring on July 22 .
Dr Samantha Burgess, deputy director of C3S, said: “We are now very likely to exceed the Paris Agreement's long-term average temperature of 1.5 degrees Celsius.” “These high global temperatures, combined with record levels of water vapor in the global atmosphere in 2024, meant unprecedented heat waves and heavy rains, leading to dire conditions for millions of people.”
Dr Friederike Otto from Imperial College London said: A year of extreme weather has shown how dangerous living at 1.5 degrees Celsius can be. Valencia floods, US hurricanes, Typhoon in the Philippines The only disasters last year exacerbated by climate change were the Amazon drought and four Amazonian droughts. There are many others. ”
“The world doesn't need to come up with a magic solution to stop things from getting worse in 2025,” Otto said. “We know exactly what we need to do to transition away from fossil fuels, stop deforestation and make our societies more resilient.”
Carbon emissions are expected to hit a record high in 2024, meaning there is still no sign of the world's transition away from fossil fuels, as promised at the United Nations Climate Conference in Dubai in December 2023. means. devastating 2.7℃ global warming By the end of the century.
The next big opportunity for action will come in February, when countries will have to introduce new legislation. Pledge to reduce emissions To the United Nations. It seems increasingly unlikely that temperatures will stay below the 1.5 degree limit, even for long periods of time. Fossil fuel emissions will need to fall by 45% by 2030 to have any chance of limiting heating to 1.5°C. Several other major temperature analyzes were released on Friday and are expected to find similar levels of heat, including one that also found temperatures in 2024 to be above 1.5 degrees Celsius. This includes the Met Office.
The natural El Niño climate phenomenon caused temperatures to rise in the first half of 2024, but remained very high in the second half of the year even after El Niño dissipated. Some scientists worry that unanticipated factors may be contributing to the alarming acceleration in global warming, but unusual annual natural fluctuations may also be the reason. There is sex.
Reduced pollution from shipping and transportation low cloudsBoth reflect sunlight and contribute to additional heating, but scientists are still Looking for a complete explanation Impact of extreme temperatures in 2024.
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Warmer air holds more water vapor, and the record levels recorded by C3S in 2024 are important as extreme rainfall events and flooding will increase. This, combined with higher sea surface temperatures, can lead to larger storms that can lead to devastating hurricanes and typhoons. Last year, the average person was exposed to an additional six weeks of dangerously hot weather, intensifying the deadly effects of heatwaves around the world.
The intensification of extreme weather events due to the climate crisis is already evident, with heatwaves of previously impossible intensity and frequency hitting the world, as well as increasingly severe droughts and wildfires.
Professor Joeli Logerge from Imperial College London said: “Even small increases in temperature, whether it's 1.4°C, 1.5°C or 1.6°C, will cause further harm to people and ecosystems, making it difficult to achieve ambitious emissions reductions. “We emphasize the continued need for this,” he said. The cost of solar and wind energy is falling rapidly and is now cheaper than fossil fuels in many countries. ”
Professor Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University in the US, issued the same statement to the media in response to new temperature records being set every year. [on] record. This means 2024 will be the coldest year of this century. Enjoy it while it lasts. ”
