Party leadership elections in the House and Senate can be among the most revealing moments on Capitol Hill. Republicans are set to hold their votes first, beginning Tuesday, with Democrats following in the House on Wednesday. The results could bring major changes, though not every lawmaker is necessarily behind the expected front-runners.
Leadership contests tend to come down to two basic things: having an alternative candidate and having enough votes. The arithmetic, more than anything, can decide the outcome.
In the House, Steve Scalise of Louisiana is seeking to become the Republican minority leader, with Jim Jordan of Ohio challenging him. Speaker Mike Johnson has said he will not remain in leadership once Republicans are no longer in control. Tom Emmer of Minnesota is also facing a challenge from August Pfluger of Texas in the race for minority whip.
If Democrats end up with 260 seats, Republicans would hold 175. Incoming House Republicans, including nonvoting territorial delegates, can take part in their party’s leadership elections. Unlike the Speaker’s election, the minority leader is chosen by the Republican conference, and a simple majority is enough. Under that scenario, a candidate would need 88 votes. The same threshold applies in the contest for minority whip.
Senate Republican leader John Thune of South Dakota is seeking to keep his position in the next Congress. A group of Republicans has called for delaying the party’s leadership vote, which is scheduled for Tuesday. The conference will choose its leader by secret ballot, and a simple majority wins. If Republicans have 44 seats, a candidate would need 23 votes.
House Democrats are expected to nominate Hakeem Jeffries of New York for their leadership post on Wednesday. Some progressive lawmakers and members aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America have expressed interest in replacing him, but no alternative candidate has emerged. It is difficult to see a challenge succeeding without someone actually running against him.
Consider the numbers. If Democrats have 260 House seats, Jeffries would need 131 votes to win his party’s nomination for Speaker. When the full House meets on January 3, all 435 members vote for Speaker. If everyone casts a ballot, 218 votes are required. Jeffries could lose around 40 Democratic votes and still win, though a loss on that scale seems unlikely.
Senate party leaders are also selected by their own caucuses, not by a vote on the Senate floor. The title of Senate majority leader is not written into the Constitution, unlike the office of House Speaker, which is a constitutional position.
Chuck Schumer of New York appears well positioned to become Senate majority leader after Democrats’ gains. Brian Schatz of Hawaii is popular among Senate Democrats, but he is running for majority whip, the position Dick Durbin of Illinois is leaving. Schatz could become a fallback choice if Schumer’s bid falters.
Some incoming Democratic senators have voiced reservations about Schumer. Abdul El-Sayed of Michigan has said he wants to consider his options and has backed Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, who is not running. Annie Andrews of South Carolina has called for a generational change in leadership, while Troy Jackson of Maine and Adam Hamilton of Kansas have said they would oppose Schumer. Still, no clear challenger has stepped forward.
If Democrats win seats in Mississippi and Alaska, they could have 56 senators caucusing with them. Schumer would then need 29 votes in the Democratic caucus to become majority leader.
There has been less open discussion about Thune’s future. President Trump has not called for a change in Senate Republican leadership, though some GOP senators want to postpone the election. If the party has 44 seats, 23 votes would be enough to win the leadership contest.
For now, both parties are counting votes: for leadership positions, for possible impeachment proceedings, and, next year, for their legislative plans. Democrats will argue voters are counting on them. Republicans may be counting the days until the next political fight. In the new Congress, the numbers will matter at nearly every turn.
One immediate test could involve an effort to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth—and it may come from Republicans before the end of this year, rather than from Democrats next year.
Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky plans to reintroduce articles of impeachment against Hegseth. Massie tried to force consideration of the articles before the midterm elections, but the House adjourned a day early in September and his effort expired. Johnson criticized the move, while denying that the early adjournment was intended to prevent a vote.
Massie had attempted to use a parliamentary procedure to bring the articles up promptly. He has since said he will revive the effort. His eight articles address issues including the alleged kidnapping of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and the Pentagon’s handling of the war in Iran.
The House could try to set the articles aside or refer them to committee, effectively ending the push. But some Republicans have become increasingly critical of Hegseth, and a motion to dismiss the effort may not have the votes.
Once again, it comes down to the count. Democrats are likely to support impeachment, and some Republicans are privately frustrated with Hegseth. Others may be seeking distance from Trump after the election, while some Republicans blame the Iran war for their party’s losses. Attendance could also matter: lawmakers who lost their races may not be present, potentially changing the balance of votes. A simple majority is enough for the House to impeach.
If the House approves the articles, they would go to the Senate, which must receive and consider them under its impeachment rules. The Senate could then move quickly to dismiss the case, as it did with articles against former Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. In that instance, senators did not hold a full trial with arguments, witnesses and evidence.
A simple majority can dismiss impeachment articles, even in a Republican-led Senate. The votes of outgoing senators such as John Cornyn of Texas, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana could draw attention, along with those of Lisa Murkowski, John Curtis, Todd Young and others. Convicting and removing an official, by contrast, requires a two-thirds vote.
Impeachment articles carry over into a new Congress, unlike ordinary legislation. A Democratic-controlled Senate could decide not to spend its early days on a trial, particularly if new members want to focus on costs and health care. But Democrats might also favor a full trial, given that the conduct of the Iran war has been cited as a factor in the election results.
What happens next may depend in part on the leaders each party chooses in both chambers.
