EXCLUSIVE — House Republicans are preparing for the 2026 elections, predicting a struggle rather than a straightforward party divide, calling it a series of intense contests.
During a policy retreat in Doral, Florida, GOP leaders argued they could defy historical patterns and maintain their majority in November, even with midterm elections typically punishing the party in power.
In a conversation with the Washington Examiner, National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Richard Hudson (R-NC) asserted that Republicans are in a stronger position than some analysts believe.
“Those claiming this election is done based on historical trends are mistaken,” Hudson remarked, while seated outside the Donald J. Trump Ballroom. “We haven’t clinched victory yet, but we haven’t lost either.”
The leadership has been promoting a new slogan for their midterm campaign: framing 2026 as a battle between “common sense and crazy.”
“Our party focuses on everyday working Americans, whereas their party seems preoccupied with illegal immigration and crime,” Hudson noted.
According to the NRCC chairman, one of the key advantages for Republicans is their data. Previous elections have shown how a new president can boost congressional candidates who wouldn’t have won otherwise due to redistricting or down-ballot effects.
“This election feels like a knife fight in a dark alley. There will be around 30 seats, each vying for a narrow victory,” Hudson explained. “Many of those could be determined by merely 1,000 votes or fewer.”
In 2018, Republicans defended 42 seats held by Hillary Clinton; for 2026, they’ll be protecting 13 incumbents in districts won by Kamala Harris.
Money and messaging take center stage
Throughout the retreat, GOP leaders expressed confidence they could defy expectations to retain their majority.
“This House Republican majority has consistently outperformed expectations and historical norms since we took charge,” House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) stated during the opening press conference.
Hudson believes the GOP has solid financial and numerical support to achieve their goals. However, they face challenges in effectively communicating their accomplishments and countering Democratic messaging regarding Trump.
“It’s challenging for us to deliver our message,” Hudson acknowledged.
A significant hurdle is in the branding of their recent legislative successes, notably the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a comprehensive measure that passed along party lines through budget reconciliation.
Democrats have leveraged their messaging around this legislation, which featured tax cuts but also new work requirements for Medicaid. They’ve framed these changes as Republicans cutting healthcare for the needy.
Republicans are now attempting to reshape the narrative by calling the legislation the “Working Families Tax Cut.”
In an interview, House Republican Conference Chairwoman Lisa McClain (R-MI) emphasized the need to help voters “connect the dots” regarding the bill’s benefits.
“As people submit their tax returns, with no tax on tips or overtime, they’re seeing unexpected returns, like, ‘Wait, where did this extra $10,000 come from?’” McClain said, referring to the impact of their policies. “Now, they’re experiencing the advantages of what we’ve implemented.”
Hudson supported McClain’s view, indicating he encouraged lawmakers to focus on specific policies that resonate with their districts.
“I’m eager to head into these Democratic areas and inform seniors that their representatives voted against the no tax on Social Security—something they’ll have to reckon with,” Hudson expressed. “Everything is in place for us to succeed, we just need to make those connections.”
Ultimately, Hudson noted, success hinges on financial resources, asserting Republicans are “well ahead” in fundraising and candidate recruitment.
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Johnson himself raised a remarkable $20 million at a single roundtable fundraiser, marking the highest amount ever by a speaker just before the House GOP policy retreat began on Monday.
“It requires collective focus and effort in our districts,” Hudson explained. “The President has a large platform, while each of us has smaller ones, but we all need to contribute in our races. … We’re investing heavily in grassroots efforts to communicate directly with voters, while also using this to enhance turnout.”
