The final two years of President Donald Trump’s presidency are shaping up to be quite different from the current Congress.
A significant number of House representatives are stepping down, with 40 members—around 10%—choosing not to run for re-election in 2026. It’s expected that more members will announce similar plans as they head home for the Christmas break to weigh their options.
While the retirement rate among senators aligns with the trends for 2024, the House is experiencing its highest turnover in over a decade. As of now, only 30 members have left Congress this December, a stark contrast to the 2018 election cycle when 32 members announced their departures by the same time while Republicans lost their grip on the House.
In terms of party dynamics, Republicans are leading Democrats in retirement announcements, 23 to 17. Historically, there’s often a rise in retirements for the party in power before midterm elections, particularly when they control the White House, according to recent analysis.
Upcoming redistricting in Texas and California, along with possible congressional map changes in Florida and Virginia, could encourage further retirements.
Notably, Republican Representatives Marjorie Taylor Greene and Mark Greene opted to resign instead of completing their terms. Fortunately for the GOP, most of those leaving are seated in stronghold districts. Nebraska’s Rep. Don Bacon, known for his critical stance on Trump, is the only Republican retiree believed to be heading into a competitive seat.
Many Republicans who are resigning are eyeing other political positions, including governor, senator, or attorney general in their home states. For instance, Reps. Chip Roy, Elise Stefanik, and Nancy Mace are all vacating their House seats for these aspirations.
Interestingly, four Texas Republican representatives—Morgan Luttrell, Jody Arrington, Troy Nehls, and Michael McCaul—are stepping down without pursuing re-election. Their retirements stand out since they are relatively young and were not expected to face fierce primary challenges.
Nehls drew attention for endorsing his twin brother to take over his congressional seat, promoting him with enthusiasm, “I got this guy. He’s a handsome guy. He looks a lot like me.” His brother Trevor has entered the race just before the filing deadline.
President Trump has also endorsed Trevor Nehls for the Houston seat, which is considered a secure Republican district.
On the Democratic side, many senior members are also deciding against re-election. Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, among others, has opted out, with several colleagues like Steny Hoyer and Jim Clyburn notably remaining ambiguous about their intentions.
Some senior Republicans, however, like Kentucky’s Hal Rogers and Texas’s John Carter, are seeking re-election despite their ages, with Rogers being 87 and Carter 84. Trump recently highlighted his support for Carter, stating, “He will never let you down!”
