If all goes according to plan, soon there will be over a billion screens showcasing images of sleek, stainless steel towers on the moon—this will be the crew landing system for the spacecraft. A close-up might show an elevator transporting two astronauts, as they make their way from their crew quarters to the base of the lander.
The astronauts will chat about the breathtaking views around them and the state of the lander, particularly the landing legs, I suppose.
Then comes the big moment. One astronaut will step onto the moon’s surface, likely saying something profound for the billions watching. It’s been quite a while—since December 1972, to be exact—that humans have ventured to the moon. This event could symbolize the start of a new era in lunar exploration.
However, as recent reports suggest, this might signal the conclusion of the Apollo-era style of exploration. This mission represents the final use of hefty launch vehicles, as well as the current iteration of the Orion spacecraft, which will be operating in orbit around the moon at that time.
The Artemis IV mission is set to kick off what’s known as the Lunar Commercial Orbital Transfer Services. Just like how travel to low Earth orbit has seen commercial interest, the moon will also start to attract similar ventures.
According to this model, NASA will provide financial support and guidance to private companies looking to develop their own spacecraft and services, essentially purchasing them at market rates.
However, lunar commercial orbital transfer is quite a bit more complex than the original commercial crew initiatives.
Navigating this requires an “end-to-end” solution for moon missions—basically, a comprehensive approach that includes launching astronauts from Earth, landing on the moon, and bringing them back.
SpaceX appears to be a leading contender for these contracts. In the scenario described, their Starship Human Landing System has already been tested successfully.
Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin is pursuing its own lunar lander, while other companies may also be working on similar projects.
The commercial route could pave the way for sustainable lunar exploration and the establishment of lunar bases, which could be a game-changer.
Previous commercial efforts, like the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services and crew initiatives, have succeeded in reducing the costs related to the International Space Station, as well as enabling plans for a commercial station to eventually replace the ISS. The same logic might apply to lunar missions.
With this service in place, it’s conceivable that civilian astronauts could visit the moon, similar to how private individuals have flown in low Earth orbit with missions like Jared Isaacman’s Inspiration4 and Polaris Dawn flights.
Yet the commercial approach isn’t without its political challenges. Some progressive politicians, including Senator Bernie Sanders, have voiced concerns about substantial investments in space exploration benefitting billionaires like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, rather than the American public.
Years ago, Sanders expressed his worries that NASA could end up being more of an ATM for fueling competition between wealthy individuals rather than serving public interests.
The senators have criticized ideas like asteroid mining, feeling that the push for commercializing space exploration could lead to further wealth accumulation among the rich, while also misunderstanding the principles of free-market capitalism.
If Artemis III proceeds as planned, it might align with the leadership of the next presidential administration. There are talks about potential candidates, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, which could influence the political landscape during the 2028 elections.
When Jared Isaacman takes on the role of NASA administrator, he’ll likely drive initiatives for lunar commercial orbital transfer services. This program is key for laying the groundwork for a permanent lunar base.
Commercializing travel to the moon could take some time; the commercial crew initiative took nearly a decade from the initial proposal in 2011 to the Crew Dragon’s first flight in 2021.
However, for lunar commercial orbital services, a timeline of four to five years seems more realistic, assuming all proceeds smoothly.
This could ultimately mean human civilization expanding its reach across space to the moon’s surface.
Mark R. Whittington, who often discusses space policy, has written on topics related to lunar exploration.
